“ The year of gas and grain ». This is the formula used by Philippe Chalmin, professor at Paris-Dauphine University, to describe 2022. A vintage that will remain etched in the annals of raw materials. Rarely have tensions been so strong on these markets, with speculative outbreaks that resulted in historic price records, then marked declines.
“By their volatility, the markets reflect the anxieties of the planet”, comments Mr. Chalmin. And the inhabitants of the planet have anxieties – real but also sometimes amplified by financial or political actors. Already in 2021, commodity prices were on the rise, propelled by Chinese shopping as well as the post-pandemic economic recovery, which had caused supply tensions. The invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops on February 24 accelerated these increases.
Thus, in the field of energy, gas prices jumped in an unprecedented way, under the effect of the drying up of Russian deliveries to Europe. On the futures markets, they averaged between 100 and 125 euros per megawatt hour, with peaks of more than 300 euros in the summer, whereas they were fluctuating between 20 euros and 30 euros before the crisis.
However, a slight respite took hold in December on this front in Europe, where temperatures below seasonal norms, the high filling of gas stocks and the slackening of demand caused by a sobriety suffered allowed a fall in prices around 85 euros, ie the levels before February 24th. In the aftermath, electricity prices, which had also been soaring throughout the year, were halved in the month of December alone and returned to below 300 euros per megawatt hour.
“It is undoubtedly a year of rupture”sums up Patrice Geoffron, director of the Center for Geopolitics of Energy and Raw Materials. “As in 1973, there will be a before and an after. At the time, we had gone from oil to nuclear to produce electricity. This time we have no more Russian gas and, presumably, we will not go back, unless peace returns, which is more than hypothetical”he points out.
Fear of a lack of wheat availability
“In 2021, Russian gas exports to the European Union amounted to 140 billion cubic meters. They have increased to 60 billion in 2022, and it is likely that in 2023 there will be no more Russian gas in our systems », recalled, on December 12, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, during a press conference in Brussels. What “would leave an even bigger hole in European and global gas supply”he warned, warning of the consequences to be expected over the coming winters.
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