Wednesday November 10, 2021
2G could also help
Economically, expect strong growth in 2022
The hoped-for economic growth will not materialize in 2021. The economic wise men, however, are more optimistic about the coming year. Then GDP could rise by 4.6 percent, so their forecast. The introduction of nationwide 2G rules could help.
Despite risks such as the corona wave, delivery bottlenecks or inflation, the economic experts expect a significant economic recovery in Germany in the coming year. According to the annual report presented in Berlin for the federal government, the gross domestic product will then grow by 4.6 percent and in the first quarter will again reach the level reached before the outbreak of the pandemic. So far, the Advisory Council had only assumed an increase of 4.0 percent.
For the year to come, however, he lowered his forecast from 3.1 to 2.7 percent, as supply bottlenecks are currently slowing down the industry in particular. “The uncertainty about the coming economic development is high”, admitted the expert Volker Wieland, who belongs to the council together with Veronika Grimm, Monika Schnitzer and Achim Truger. Renewed health policy restrictions or prolonged delivery bottlenecks could put a greater strain on the recovery.
The introduction of nationwide 2G rules in view of the record new infections should not harm the economy. They could even accelerate the growth, said Wieland. This shows the experience in other countries where a 2G regulation was introduced and more vaccinations were introduced in the fight against the spread of the coronavirus. Restaurants, gyms, museums and similar places are taboo for the unvaccinated, only vaccinated and convalescent (2G) are allowed in. “I would say that it can even accelerate growth,” said Wieland.
BDI wants more pressure on unvaccinated people
The council presented its annual report entitled “Shaping Transformation: Education, Digitization and Sustainability” to Chancellor Angela Merkel and the government. The report came at the right time to give “inspiration” for the traffic light negotiations, said Merkel on receipt. You very much welcome the focus. Germany must be careful to maintain competitiveness in the most comprehensive transformation of the economy since industrialization. “They are a little more optimistic than the government on their growth forecast, which makes us very happy,” she added. But now it is important that the expectation can also be converted into real growth. “We are now faced with the task of getting the pandemic under control properly,” said the outgoing Chancellor.
The Federation of German Industries (BDI) called on politicians to remove pandemic-related restrictions on growth – for example through another vaccination campaign and a 3G rule (recover, vaccinated or tested) at the workplace. “Politicians must do everything in their power to ensure that the number of vaccinations continues to rise and that booster vaccinations are carried out systematically,” said BDI Managing Director Joachim Lang. “It must not be that a small group of people who refuse to be vaccinated paralyzes an entire society with the majority of those who have been vaccinated.”
The German Trade Union Confederation (DGB) demanded additional funds in order to dissolve the billion-dollar municipal investment backlog and to be able to shape the structural change in a socially acceptable manner. “This is the only way to maintain social cohesion,” said DGB board member Stefan Körzell. With inflation, which is currently 4.5 percent, its highest level since the end of 1993, economists are only expecting a gradual relaxation. Annual inflation should fall from an average of 3.1 percent this year to 2.6 percent next year. The economists warn, however: “Prolonged supply-side bottlenecks, higher wage agreements and rising energy prices pose risks.” As a result, temporary price drivers could actually lead to permanently higher inflation rates.