The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), headquartered in Geneva, warns that the average temperature on earth could exceed an important threshold in the next four years: There is a 50:50 chance that the global mean temperature will exceed at least one of the next five years between 2022 and 2022 Those involved write that by 2026, at least temporarily, it will be 1.5 degrees Celsius above the level before the start of industrialization. And this probability is constantly increasing: it was still close to zero in 2015 and only around ten percent between 2017 and 2021.
At the same time, there is a 93 percent probability that one of the years between 2022 and 2026 will be the warmest year on record. This would oust 2016 as the previous leader. And the working group also calculated a 93 percent probability that the five-year average for 2022 to 2026 will be higher than that of the last five years from 2017 to 2021.
»This study shows with high scientific quality that we are temporarily getting measurably closer to the lower target of the Paris climate agreement. The 1.5 degrees is an indicator of the point at which climate impacts become increasingly harmful to people and the entire planet,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. “A single year exceeding 1.5 degrees does not mean that we have crossed the symbolic threshold of the Paris Agreement. But it shows that we are getting closer and closer to a situation where that could be exceeded for an extended period of time,” adds Leon Hermanson of the Met Office, who led the report.
With regard to the Paris climate agreement, it is not the temperature level of a single year that is decisive. The 1.5 degree limit is officially exceeded when the global average temperature is higher over a meteorological measurement period of 20 or 30 years.