Several important meetings this Thursday for the world economy. Starting with Jerome Powell’s semester hearing. After the Senate, the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will respond to members of the House of Representatives on the Fed’s action in the face of inflation but also in the face of the risks of recession induced by the rate hike already underway.
On the Old Continent, Heads of State and Government will meet at a summit in Brussels, with many issues at stake. In particular, they will examine Ukraine’s application for membership, when a consensus has reportedly been reached between the Twenty-Seven.
A decline in the morale of the bosses to be expected
Apart from political and economic meetings, the market will analyze major statistics like preliminary PMI indices from the IHS Markit institute, which trace the expectations of business leaders in the manufacturing and services sectors, in June. ” Order books remain well stocked, the morale of purchasing managers has held up quite well so far “, notes the firm Oddo BHF, the indices are now above the 50 mark. The analysts add however that a “ downturn seems inevitable in the next few months”, the surge in prices posing risks of economic contraction everywhere in the world.
In the euro zone, where inflation now exceeds 8%, the PMI index is expected at 53.8 in the manufacturing sector and 55.5 in services in June, against 54.6 and 56.1 respectively the previous month. . The situation should be better in France, where the PMI manufacturing index is expected at 57.6 against 54.5 in Germany. On the other side of the Atlantic, the economy is undergoing intensified monetary tightening, which could cause the S&P PMI index to fall from 57 to 56 between May and June in the manufacturing sector, against a slight increase from 53.4 to 53.7 in services. In the United Kingdom, where stagflation threatens, PMIs are expected to fall, to 53.7 (54.6 in May) in the manufacturing sector and to 53 (53.4) in services.
Among the other statistics to follow, we will be interested in the business climate index for the month of June in France (consensus: 105, compared to 106 in May). Business leaders should therefore remain confident, despite an environment marked by tensions.
On the values side, several quarterly results will be revealed by the companies Accenture, BlackBerry and FedEx. French companies Valneva and Synergy will hold their annual general meeting during the day.