It is “premature” to think that the American central bank (Fed) will soon begin to reduce its rates, a head of the monetary policy institution warned on Friday, stressing that inflation had not yet reached its peak. target level.
“It is really premature to think that this is imminent,” declared on the Fox Business channel the president of the San Francisco Fed, Mary Daly, who in 2024 will have rotating voting rights within the monetary policy committee of the Fed, the FOMC, the one that makes decisions on rates.
But it is “appropriate that we look to the future and ask ourselves when policy adjustments will be necessary so as not to strangle the economy,” said Ms. Daly, noting that “inflation has not returned to 2% », the level targeted by the Fed.
As a measure of price developments, the Fed favors the PCE index, whose next December inflation data will be released on January 26. In November, this index fell to its lowest since the start of 2021, to 2.6% over one year.
Another measure, the CPI index, on which pensions are indexed in the United States, started to rise again in December, to 3.4% over one year.
“We are fully committed to restoring price stability and to do so, of course, as gently as possible, but we still have a lot of work to do. We are not there yet and it is far too early to declare victory,” Ms. Daly further indicated.
Since July, Fed rates have been in a range of 5.25 to 5.50%, their highest level in more than 20 years. The next FOMC meeting is January 30-31, and rates are expected to remain at this level.