A guest post from Ukraine
“We depend on Germany and German leadership”
A guest article by Olena Halushka and Hanna Hopko
March 16, 2024, 2:10 p.m
A majority of Germans no longer believe in a Ukrainian victory. However, we as a Ukrainian society remain firmly convinced of this. For this we need support from Europe – especially from Germany.
Russia is on the offensive on almost all parts of the front. Our brave fighters are running out of ammunition, also because the US aid that is so important to us has been blocked in Congress for months. It is precisely at this difficult moment that Europe and therefore German leadership are crucial.
The Russian regime is preparing for a long war. Revenues from the oil and gas business are bubbling up. Western sanctions have so far weakened the Russian war economy only slightly. This needs to be readjusted and existing sanctions need to be implemented better. According to estimates, Russia spends between six and ten percent of its gross domestic product on the army and secret services. So far, Europe has not responded adequately. A militarily highly armed and aggressive Russia threatens not only Ukraine, but also NATO. According to recent surveys, a majority of Germans see it that way.
Russia has been fighting against us since 2014. A decade later, Russia is actively supported by Iran, North Korea and, increasingly, China. This alliance aims to replace the rules-based international order with the law of the strongest. Preventing exactly that is in our common interest. That is why it is so important that the German Bundestag also stated in its motion on the anniversary of the full Russian invasion that it is in the strategic and security policy interests of Germany and the EU to campaign with all its might for the sovereignty and integrity of Ukraine. The best way to end Russia’s great power fantasies once and for all and restore the European peace order is a strategic Russian defeat in Ukraine. Achieving this requires a joint effort.
We are very grateful to the Germans
In the last two years, Germany’s role in supporting Ukraine has changed enormously for the better. From the mocked 5,000 helmets to becoming the second largest military donor country, Germany has come a long way. We know that we can rely on the Federal Government and the German Bundestag as our largest and most important supporters in our difficult EU accession process and the associated reforms and reconstruction. Today Germany is home to almost 1.2 million of our compatriots. We are very grateful for all of this.
Unfortunately, there is still no end to the war in sight. Today we would have to state that Russia still wants to achieve its maximum war goals. It wants nothing less than to wipe us off the map as an independent state. This is precisely why we say to all supporters of Ukraine, all our partners and friends, that more must be done now to turn the difficult situation on the battlefield around. In this difficult hour we must not give in to resignation.
In view of the sobering liberation offensive last summer and probably especially after the Ukrainian withdrawal from Avdiivka, a majority of Germans do not believe in our victory. However, we as a Ukrainian society firmly believe that we can win this war. In 2022, brilliant ground operations led to the liberation of Kherson and parts of the Kharkiv region. In 2023, despite not having its own navy, Ukraine weakened the Russian Black Sea Fleet to such an extent that agricultural exports, which are so important to the world, remained possible after Russia let the grain agreement expire.
2024 can bring the turning point
The year 2024 can be a turning point in this war, but this requires more robust European and therefore German leadership. A stalemate, sustained trench warfare, or the worst-case scenario of a Russian breakthrough in the East can be avoided if Western arms assistance and ammunition arrive more quickly and in the quantities required.
Sufficient stand-off weapons, including the Taurus cruise missile, are also crucial. We cannot understand why the German Chancellor is so vehemently against the provision. Our armed forces have shown repeatedly that they quickly learn how to use complex weapon systems. Without exception, they always used them as discussed with their partners. We therefore hope that the Chancellor will reconsider this no. Otherwise we risk running out of the stand-off weapons provided by France and Great Britain.
Our European partners have long known that, regardless of the outcome of the presidential elections in the USA, in addition to artillery ammunition, they will also have to jointly order significantly more weapon systems, such as battle tanks, for Ukraine. This is the only way to achieve the necessary increases in production. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s repeated calls to his European counterparts to help Ukraine more are very welcome. Now it’s time to turn words into actions together. The Czech initiative for ammunition purchases outside the EU, which Germany is co-supporting, is very important in the short term.
Russian money for Russian destruction
We realize that aid to Ukraine costs a lot of money. The strained budget situation in Germany and other countries raises the question of how financing can be managed. Joint European borrowing, as suggested by Emmanuel Macron, would be a possibility that Germany clearly rejects. Another is the use of frozen Russian state assets in the West.
While the British, Canadians and Americans are leading the way with ideas for using Russia’s central bank assets, the EU, especially Germany and France, is hesitant. The only consensus so far is that the frozen funds will not be paid back to Russia until it has made sufficient reparations to Ukraine. While Europe is worried about the attractiveness of its financial location, Ukraine is severely lacking in money. The costs for the Ukrainian reconstruction due to the massive war damage amount to according to estimates from the World Bank, EU Commission, UN and Ukraine to almost 500 billion US dollars.
According to numerous international experts, the confiscation of frozen Russian state assets would be a proportionate countermeasure in accordance with international law in view of Russia’s war of aggression, which violates international law. Especially if it takes place in consultation with other G7 states, it would not harm the Western financial systems. Since the euro, dollar, pound and yen cover almost 90 percent of all global currency reserves, there is no viable alternative to Western currencies in the short to medium term.
At the beginning of 2024 we are at a crucial point. The shape of the future European peace order will be decided in Ukraine. Only with even more extensive Western, but above all European and German, help can we achieve a turning point in this war. This will require decisive German and European leadership. Instead of hesitating and hesitating, it is now important to take action together and protect Europe from an expansion of Russian imperialist ambitions.
The authors: Olena Halushka was a member of the Kiev City Council, is co-founder of the NGO International Center for Ukrainian Victory (ICUV) and an employee of the Ukrainian Anti-Corruption Center. Hanna Hopko is a journalist and former member of the Ukrainian parliament. She is also one of the ICUV founders and a member of the International Advisory Board of the Warsaw Security Forum.