A look back shows that Putin’s chances are poor

Russian troops are retreating further and further in Ukraine. Now all that remains for Moscow is hope for the effect of mobilization and its own historical strength. But just looking at history should make Putin shudder.

Ukrainian soldiers on the front east of Kharkiv: The Russians currently have little to counter their attacks.

Vyacheslav Madiyevskyy / Reuters

Russia’s President Putin revels in the role of the nation’s top professor of history – not one of his speeches goes by without references to historical context intended to guide Moscow’s actions in the present. He also tried to justify the attack on Ukraine by blatantly distorting the facts with historical claims by Russia. It is obvious that the President, who will turn 70 on Friday, has one eye on his place in future history books; recently he has even immodestly compared himself to Peter the Great.

What Putin is currently learning about the course of the war in Ukraine behind the walls of his Kremlin palace is unlikely to quench his hunger for historical greatness. After the astounding victory of the Ukrainians through the Kharkiv province three weeks ago, the Russian front lines are now collapsing further east in the Luhansk Oblast and in the south near Cherson. Since the weekend alone, the Russians have had to clear areas of around 4,000 square kilometers.

Inferior to the Ukrainians

In fact, this is even more humiliating for Moscow than the defeat east of Kharkiv in September. At that time, the military leadership could still use the excuse that it had fallen victim to a clever diversionary maneuver by the enemy. However, the recent siege of Liman or the assault along the Dnipro towards Kherson did not surprise anyone. The Moscow General Staff knew that the Ukrainians would attack there – and yet failed miserably to organize an effective defense. Europe’s largest army is currently clearly inferior to the troops of Ukraine – an opponent that the Kremlin does not even recognize as a real country.

How the amateur historian Putin interprets this development is speculation. The hardliners around him are counting on Russia’s superior resources and mobilization, the effects of which will only be properly assessed on the battlefield in a few months. Putin likes to calm himself with the fact that “Matushka Rossiya”, Mother Russia, has repeatedly saved herself from apparently hopeless military situations over the centuries. In fact, in the fog of daily, often fragmented and contradictory reports from the front, the future is difficult to guess. Sometimes a look at the past offers a clearer view. But history seems to have passed a devastating verdict on Putin’s campaign of conquest.

Historical parallels abound. It is striking that in modern times Russia always performed at its best when it was existentially threatened by external enemies. Napoleon suffered a fiasco on his journey to Moscow in 1812, as did Hitler 130 years later. Also worth mentioning was the turmoil after the October Revolution of 1917, when at times no fewer than a dozen foreign states intervened in Russia with their own troops – they were all pushed back, and Lenin’s Red Army prevailed everywhere.

Nationalistic arrogance leads to downfall

In times of external challenges, Russia’s rulers succeed in mobilizing the people to make extreme sacrifices. Soviet troops suffered more than twice the death toll of Nazi Germany in World War II, but they triumphed, in an immense show of strength.

Russia’s military, on the other hand, fares much worse when it comes to “self-imposed” wars. The foolish attack on Japan in 1905 ended in a debacle, and involvement in World War I led to the collapse of the Tsarist Empire. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 is also one of the wars that Moscow started in fatal overestimation of its own strength and paid dearly for.

To which category the invasion of Ukraine belongs is obvious. It is an illegal war of aggression unleashed on the basis of absurd accusations, for which the Kremlin made no serious plans and for which the army was in no way prepared. If you take not only current military developments, but also history as a benchmark, Russia will lose him.

Suddenly a defensive war?

Certainly, Putin is now trying desperately to bend the historical laws in his favor. With the annexation of four partially occupied Ukrainian provinces, he wants to turn his campaign of conquest into a war to defend “Russian soil”. Linked to this is the hope of unleashing the same energies that were used against Napoleon or Hitler. But the attempt is all too transparent, and there is no mood of patriotic defense in Russia.

History holds other lessons: Lost wars have always triggered destabilizing forces in Russia. After the humiliation of the Crimean War in 1856, the Tsar’s court was forced to implement far-reaching reforms. Defeat by Japan led to the 1905 Revolution, and failures in World War I sealed the fate of the monarchy. Do the current rulers face the same threat? If Putin did not see history as a mere means of shamelessly manipulating the public, but dealt with it seriously, he would never have rolled his tanks over the borders of Ukraine.

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