The supplementary pension plan for executives and employees of the private Agirc-Arrco should still be largely in the green this year, with an estimated technical result of 3.7 billion euros, according to an internal document consulted Friday, September 23 by AFP. Good news for withdrawals from the private sector, since this surplus will make it possible to revalue the pension almost to the height of inflation.
The big box is overflowing. According to the central scenario recently presented to its financial commission, Agirc-Arrco is counting on a technical surplus (before financial result) of 3.7 billion euros this year. After the surplus of 2.6 billion already recorded last year, the system managed by the unions and the employers therefore continues to reap the benefits of the post-Covid economic recovery.
Enough to fuel the next discussions on the revaluation of pensions on November 1, 2022, especially since a gain of 1.5 billion is still projected for 2023 and that the golden rule consisting in having six months of financial reserves over a horizon of 15 years would remain held.
An increase of around 5% in November
At this stage, an increase of at least 4.9% has been acquired, essentially corresponding to the evolution of wages (4.8%) and a slight catch-up (0.1%) of undervalued inflation in 2021, have indicated several union sources to AFP, confirming the information published by MoneyVox last week.
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An increase of almost 5% would be better than the 4% granted this summer by the government on the basic pension service by Scu. But less than the rise in prices excluding tobacco, figure by Agirc-Arrco 5.3% year on year. Annual inflation for 2022 estimated by INSEE is also 5.3%.
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Compared to the 84 billion euros in services budgeted for 2022, this mechanical increase will cause spending to jump by more than 4 billion next year. Some negotiators nevertheless hope to obtain more than 4.9%, in order to limit the loss of purchasing power of withdrawals.
The subject will be put on the table of a joint committee on Tuesday afternoon, before a decision in the board of directors on October 6. But the social partners have limited room for maneuver, due to their golden rule and the principles established before the health crisis, which prevent them in particular from upgrading pensions beyond the increase in wages. The negotiation of a new agreement in early 2023 will allow them to put everything back on track.
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