Lhe double Ukrainian offensive in the regions of Kherson in the south and Kharkiv in the east is transforming the way Americans and Europeans think about military support for Ukraine. In the first weeks of the war, some experts feared that military aid would prove useless as the Ukrainians were doomed to defeat. Worse, delivering arms meant taking the risk of seeing them quickly fall into the hands of traffickers or criminals, thanks to the Ukrainian rout. Above all, many Western decision-makers feared that the deliveries of heavy weapons would only prolong the war and its share of suffering, without changing the outcome.
Today, all these calculations are reversed. Not only is it clear that Western aid pays off militarily because Ukrainian forces know how to take full advantage of it, but the speed of the offensive on Kharkiv now suggests that the best way to end this war is to accelerate Ukraine’s move towards victory. In this context, where does France stand? If the delivery of 18 Caesar guns was very publicized, and appreciated on the spot, the statistics of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy place our country at the back of the pack. When French support for Ukraine is estimated at 233 million euros, the United States put 25 billion euros on the table, the United Kingdom 4 billion, Poland 1.8 billion and Germany 1, 2 billion. Even small countries such as Estonia and Latvia show figures higher than those invested by France.
The French reluctance can be understood. Admittedly, Ukraine needs arms, but French stocks are limited and the current context encourages the French military to seek to reinforce them, not to empty them. However, this reluctance should be overcome for military, diplomatic and industrial reasons.
Maintain the myth
From a military point of view, heavy weapons like the Caesar cannon or the Leclerc tank make the difference especially in high intensity combat. While they can play a crucial role in the hands of the Ukrainians, they would not be sorely lacking in the French forces engaged in the Sahel, where the emphasis is rather placed on lightness and mobility, via the use of helicopters for example. . Better: as long as the Russians are held in check in Ukraine, we have all the less risk of having to confront them directly closer to our borders, which leaves us time to reconstitute our stocks. Delivering our weapons to the Ukrainians is therefore the best use we can make of them, including for our own security.
You have 55.47% of this article left to read. The following is for subscribers only.