Shortly after Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Chancellor Scholz coined the phrase “a turning point”. This affects far more than the special assets for the Bundeswehr. It’s about the end of a lifestyle.
Anyone looking back at the past few years today, at the end of February 2023, could almost become nostalgic. Well, of course you immediately think of the pandemic, and of course we are all glad that it is over. But even this global mega-crisis contained a moment of hope. After all, mankind did not stand against each other, but (largely) together. Of course, not everything went well, but unprecedented things were accomplished. In less than a year, vaccines were developed that prevented even worse. And at least initially, many Germans were pleased with Angela Merkel’s calm way of leading the country through these difficult times.
In the 16 years of Merkel, the Germans lived in a world full of snuggly illusions that today seems almost strange. In retrospect, what stands out is the belief that one only has to shake hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin and that he can be placated with concessions. That the Nord Stream 2 pipeline seemed like a good idea to most even after the annexation of Crimea. That the Europeans east of the Oder exaggerated when they repeatedly warned about the man in the Kremlin. Before the revanchism of a man who described the fall of the Soviet Union as the greatest catastrophe of the 20th century. And the Americans, those cowboys who always wanted to deliver weapons right away? call for hardship? They didn’t understand Europe at all. one thought.
Dependence on Putin? Just don’t paint the devil on the wall. Even the Soviet Union always delivered the gas on time, according to business, the SPD, and almost everywhere. Putin needs us too, they said. He needs the income. That the eventuality that we no longer want Russian oil and gas seemed beyond imagination. Inexpensive raw materials, that’s what the business location needed. That secured jobs for us, after all it was about competitiveness. The Chinese don’t sleep.
What if they attack Taiwan?
The principle of “change through trade” is now gathering dust in the drawer and should stay there for the time being. This weekend Chancellor Olaf Scholz travels to India to reduce Germany’s dependence on China, where Volkswagen, BASF and the other German heavyweights have invested so heavily it could make your head spin. He has also been to Japan, and the ties to other Far Eastern countries are to be strengthened again. Especially with those who are also democratic. That’s more important now, in this new world.
The federal government has now established that China is more than a paradise for German exports. The country itself operates tough interest politics. What if the Chinese should attack Taiwan? That wouldn’t be rational. But is rationality still the measure of all things? Especially when a Chinese head of state, who enjoys absolute power, only recently had one of his predecessors removed from the party hall in front of the world press?
What applies to Putin also seems to apply to Xi. Probably nobody from his entourage can stop him. Aren’t we almost as dependent on China as we once were on Russia? Everyone saw it with the protective masks during the pandemic. But there is much more at stake: electronics, microchips, medicines. Now we have to keep our fingers crossed that Xi will leave it at benevolent neutrality (in favor of Russia). And no weapons supplies.
Merkel is not to blame for everything
Today it seems almost strange how highly regarded Angela Merkel left office. It’s not that she hasn’t had her hands full solving one crisis after another. Financial crisis, euro crisis, refugee crisis and countless small catastrophes that we have already suppressed. Anyway, it’s easy to make judgments with today’s knowledge. Anyone who criticizes the Chancellor not only has to include large parts of the party landscape and yes, also the media, but also large parts of society. After the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, who would have been prepared to respond with such brutal sanctions as have been in place since the end of February 2022? And yet Merkel’s Ukraine policy has failed, she is under pressure to justify it.
The same applies to China’s constant courtship. Of course, that was the most important new market. There they were attracted by what entrepreneurs and managers are wild about: growth. But it would be just as cheap to pass the buck to the economy. To say that she has thrown herself too much on the Middle Kingdom. Because growth is the basis of prosperity. Growth means jobs, tax revenue and therefore swimming pools and libraries in your own neighborhood.
What kind of world view we could afford – also with a view to the Bundeswehr. Everyone knew it was in bad shape. But you couldn’t win elections with the topic. When it came to its soldiers, the country almost shrugged its shoulders. That the troops would be needed for anything other than foreign operations in Afghanistan or in other distant countries was beyond imagination. In any case, it had nothing to do with war. Maybe even with war-like conditions. But otherwise? Let’s just call it peacekeeping.
The Ukrainians already knew this world
And we had the Americans, they already took care of the defense. Moreover, one could look down on them, most recently because of the fatal Iraq war, which solved no problem but cost many lives. But they were also doing their job in Germany, offering us protection under the nuclear defense shield. But when they demanded, in different tones depending on the president, that Germany please stick to the NATO agreement and spend two percent of its economic power on defense, it sounded like the Cold War. The Bundeswehr were development workers in uniform. Tank battles in the North German lowlands? Come on! The 80s are over. Let’s enjoy the peace dividend. Putin isn’t stupid, he speaks German so well, he would never…
On February 24, we woke up in a different world, said Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock later. One could also say, in the world in which Ukraine has been living(living) since 2014. A few months after taking office, the federal government was stuck in a crisis of the century and had to decide how much it was willing to give for the noble values that are talked about a lot on Sundays – for freedom, human rights, sovereignty of states. She has proven that there is a lot – and with her the people in this country, of whom only a few protest and most of whom are taking this path alongside Ukraine.
Ukraine, Europeans and most of the world are groping their way through the fog of war. The compass is freedom, democracy, human rights. A vaccine will not be enough for us this time. But maybe what Merkel has always done will help: think things from the end. Maybe someday we’ll look back and see that all that hard work has paid off. That good has prevailed in Ukraine. That everyone has learned to understand better what freedom and peace they have. Maybe even that soon the point came when something changed in Russia as well. So that in retrospect it wasn’t completely pointless that so many died in this war.