fFrance’s re-elected President Emmanuel Macron has the prospect of a clear majority in the National Assembly after the first round of the general election. Extrapolations saw the President’s centre-camp on Sunday evening with 25.2 to 25.6 percent almost on par with the left-wing alliance with 25.2 to 26.1 percent. However, forecasts assume that the distribution of seats after the second round of voting in a week will see a clear majority for the Liberal Alliance.
Accordingly, the Macron camp could get around 255 to 310 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly. It is unclear whether an absolute majority of at least 289 seats will be achieved. The result is a success for the new left-wing alliance of leftists, communists, greens and socialists led by left-wing politician Jean-Luc Mélenchon. However, the forecasts give them only about 150 to 210 of the seats. The differences between the percentage of votes and the distribution of seats can be explained by the complicated electoral system. In the end, only the votes for the winner in the respective constituency count.
Confirmation of the presidential election?
For Macron, the issue in the parliamentary elections is whether he will be able to implement his plans in his second term. For that he needs a majority in Parliament. If the votes are only enough for a relative majority, the president and the government would be forced to seek support from the other camps. It is likely that there will then be a minority government which, depending on the project, will try to rely on centre-left or centre-right forces.
Even if many French were dissatisfied with Macron’s first term in office, the 44-year-old benefited from the fact that the parliamentary elections in France are perceived as confirmation of the presidential election. Traditionally, supporters of the winner take part in the voting, while others often stay at home.