The federal government’s electricity-saving campaign is unlikely to take effect yet. This is indicated by a NZZ data analysis. Demand from the large municipal utilities also shows that there has been no noticeable decline so far.
“Every kilowatt hour counts.” With this call, the Federal Council started its electricity saving campaign on August 31st. Since then, the population has been asked not to waste energy with posters, advertisements and via social networks. What does an initial balance look like after a month of austerity campaigns?
The short answer is: the total electricity consumption in Switzerland has probably not yet decreased in September. This is shown by a NZZ evaluation of daily electricity data.
The long answer is: it’s complicated. This is because Switzerland has not yet systematically collected data on current electricity consumption. The situation is reminiscent of the beginnings of the corona pandemic, when the authorities needed some time to collect reliable data on the number of cases, hospitalizations and occupied intensive care beds.
Estimates show no drop in consumption
Nevertheless, first estimates are possible. These suggest that in September the total electricity consumption in Switzerland was probably no lower than in the same month of the previous year – although a large area of uncertainty is taken into account (see chart). On the interpretation: It can only be said that electricity is definitely being saved if the uncertainty range is below the previous year’s line.
How can this statement be made? To do this, you need to know how the data on electricity consumption in Switzerland is collected. It is a journey into a typically Swiss system with many decentralized responsibilities.
Complicated data situation
At the beginning there is Swissgrid, the operator of the Swiss transmission grid. It constantly monitors the so-called load in the Swiss electricity grid. This means the sum of all “load profiles” – i.e. when electricity is drawn from the grid somewhere.
This information is vitally important. Swissgrid needs them to keep the Swiss electricity grid stable. Because in a power grid, consumption (energy drawn) and production (energy supplied) must always be balanced. Otherwise there is a risk of a blackout.
To calculate the load in the Swiss grid, Swissgrid relies on reports from around 600 electricity supply companies in Switzerland and on its own measurements. The numbers are added up every hour. Swissgrid registers this current load data (on a voluntary basis). Entso-e, the Association of European Transmission System Operators. From there, the data goes to Platform Swiss Energy Charts. The website of energy expert Thomas Nordmann has been providing the public with a wide range of information on the current electricity situation in Switzerland for more than three years.
Electricity suppliers have six months to report
However, the current load data have a problem: they are “not statistically reliable”, as Swissgrid puts it. As a result, the data is incomplete and error-prone. They can therefore not be interpreted one-to-one as current electricity consumption in Switzerland.
The reason for this is that many of the 600 local electricity suppliers, some of which are very small, only deliver reports or correct information after a delay. It takes around a month for the electricity data to be cleaned up enough for Swissgrid to put it in a «Energy overview» published on their website.
There is also another special feature in Switzerland compared to EU countries: the local electricity suppliers have up to six months to make their definitive reports. For this reason, Swissgrid and the responsible Federal Office of Energy only know after a delay of several months what the precise electricity consumption was in Switzerland at a given point in time.
Calculation of a correction factor
Nevertheless, the daily updated load data contain valuable information – after all, they are used to control the power grid. This information can be filtered out by correcting the data for an initial error. The NZZ has calculated such a correction factor. To do this, the unadjusted current load data was compared with the later adjusted data from Swissgrid.
According to this analysis, the current data underestimates the actual total electricity consumption by around 2.5 percent on average – this reflects the fact that the electricity suppliers usually give late reports. In addition, the initial error varies. The so-called standard deviation is around 4.5 percent.
The current electricity data can now be used by placing a corresponding uncertainty range (“95 percent confidence interval”) around the curve with the daily load data. This is indicated in the graphics.
Seasonal pattern as in previous years
The results show that no electricity was saved in Switzerland in September. It is highly probable that electricity consumption actually increased compared to the previous year. However, the probability that electricity will already be saved is low – at around 15 percent.
In addition, this year’s electricity consumption largely corresponds to the usual seasonal pattern, as a comparison with 2021 shows. Incidentally, the picture looks very similar if you do not use the comparison year 2021, but compare it with the pre-corona years 2015 to 2019.
Some qualifying remarks are necessary. Firstly, total electricity consumption is not the same as final consumption in households and companies. It also includes active losses in the grid and the electricity that power plants (e.g. pumped storage power plants) need for their own operation. On a long-term average, the electricity consumption of end consumers is around 12 percent lower than the total Swiss electricity consumption.
Secondly, the relatively large area of uncertainty around the current electricity data means that precise statements – for example whether electricity consumption has increased by 4 percent or decreased by 4 percent in one week – are not possible.
Federal government plans electricity monitoring
It would therefore also not make sense for the Federal Council to make decisions on electricity quotas, bans and shutdowns on the basis of such data. Marianne Zünd, spokeswoman for the Federal Office of Energy, says: “If the federal government were to restrict electricity based on rough trend figures, those affected would not be happy. A solid data basis is required for government measures.”
The Federal Office therefore intends to set up a timely monitoring of electricity consumption itself by the end of the year. The aim is for the local electricity suppliers to deliver their data to the federal government more quickly, says Zünd. In addition, one will work with models in order to be able to make forecasts for the following days.
“We want to be able to issue warnings based on the monitoring, for example that a reserve power plant has to be started up or that the hydropower reserve has to be tapped.” The monitoring should be made accessible to the public, as far as this is legally possible – similar to the corona data during the pandemic.
Trend statements, on the other hand, can be made with the estimates made here. They suggest that the Swiss have hardly started saving electricity.
Survey shows slight decline in consumption in cities
A survey of the local electricity suppliers in 15 large Swiss cities also points in this direction.
Three electricity suppliers could not provide information on electricity consumption in their area in September because they do not yet have the relevant data. This shows that data availability cannot be taken for granted, even for large municipal utilities.
Five urban suppliers – i.e. a third – observed no change in electricity consumption compared to the same month last year. This was the case in Zurich, Lausanne, Winterthur, St. Gallen and Chur.
However, at least seven municipal electricity suppliers – i.e. almost half – recorded a slight drop in electricity consumption of 2 to 4 percent in September compared to the same month last year (Basel, Berne, Lugano, Biel, Thun, Bellinzona and Schaffhausen). This could point to certain austerity efforts in the cities. However, the reasons for the slight drop in consumption were difficult to pinpoint, was the tenor, since experience had shown that power consumption fluctuated and depended on the weather and other factors.
Hard test is yet to come
All in all, it can be stated that up to now there has not been much evidence of effective power saving. It will probably take some time for the topic to become firmly established in the minds of the Swiss. That’s not surprising either. The cold season has only just begun. In addition, the most sensitive months in terms of power supply will not follow until winter, from January to March 2023.
At the beginning of the year, household prices for electricity will also rise significantly in many communities. This should encourage people to save electricity more than the federal government’s appeals.