Barely recovered from the shock linked to Covid-19, global growth is managing to resist the headwinds of inflation and the war in Ukraine. Certainly, its rate of progression is lower than its historical average and its level before the pandemic: with an expected increase of 3% in 2023, then 2.9% in 2024, according to estimates published Tuesday October 10 by the Fund International Monetary Fund (IMF).
These forecasts, almost unchanged compared to those of July, lead the IMF’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, to say that the world economy ” box “ but demonstrates“remarkable resilience”.
This global average masks significant disparities. Emerging countries see their growth remain at 4% in 2023 while it plunges to 1.5% in rich countries. Even within these two large groups, the gaps are widening. The United States is driven by sustained growth revised upwards in 2023 (2.1%), while that of the euro zone slows down to 0.7%. On the emerging side, the Chinese economy, slowed down by a drop in global demand and a real estate crisis, is overtaken by Brazil and India, which are in the lead.
Fragmentation of the global economy
Inflation, which rose to 9.5% in the third quarter of 2022, is expected to fall to 5.9% in the last quarter of 2023. This decline is slower than expected. The IMF has calculated that in 2023 the price increase would be beyond the targets of almost all the world’s central banks. In poor countries, a lull is not expected before 2024, while the slowdown is impressive in the euro zone, going from +9.9% to +3.3% in one year in the last quarter of 2023.
“Although monetary tightening is starting to bear fruit, the main cause of the slowdown in inflation is the fall in commodity prices”, notes the IMF. Despite a historically low unemployment rate in rich countries, no sign of an inflationary spiral fueled by rising wages has been observed, the Washington institution also notes with relief. “The tightening of monetary policies must continue until inflation is sustainably brought back towards its objectives”, warns Mr. Gourinchas who specifies: “We’re not there yet. »
In the long term, the IMF is concerned about the fragmentation of the global economy. Border restrictions could make commodity markets even more volatile and slow growth. Geopolitical uncertainties, combined with rising interest rates and a drop in public spending, are encouraging businesses to be cautious. Investments have not returned to their pre-pandemic levels. Mr. Gourinchas notes, finally, that the budgetary room for maneuver of States has been reduced and pleads for them to do so. “reconstitute to better prepare for the shocks of the future”.