According to the long-term forecast: Winter could set new records

According to the long-term forecast
This winter could set new records

© olegganko / Adobe Stock

The weather experts’ models allow the first reliable long-term forecasts for the winter. We reveal what you can expect for the next few months.

white Christmas? Snowball fights, sledding trips and no school because of slippery roads? Especially in winter, it is understandable that we would like to know as early as possible what the weather will be like – after all, extreme winter weather can have a noticeable impact on our lives. But before we feverishly search for forecasts in September on which we might make our Christmas or winter vacation plans dependent, we would do better to take a deep breath, look out the window and remember: Meteorologists can’t do magic. Even the weather forecast for tomorrow afternoon may turn out to be wrong. In the long term, i.e. months in advance, trends can only be calculated and predicted, for example “rainy”, “dry”, “warmer or colder than average”. But after all, that’s better than nothing.

Record-breakingly mild winter likely

Based on the models from the weather services that are most important to us, we can count on one this year record-breakingly mild winter set. While December is expected to be only slightly warmer than an average December, with deviations of 0.5 to 2 degrees depending on the region, experts expect temperatures for January and February 2024 to be up to 3 degrees warmer – compared to the average values ​​for these months from the period 1991 to 2020. The amount of precipitation is also expected to be higher than usual, especially in these two months, although due to the temperature difference in many places it will be more likely to be rain than snow.

Against this background, the chances of a white Christmas, snowball fights and toboggan trips are realistically slim in most areas of Germany this winter. Even in relevant ski regions it may be less wintry than usual this season.

Mild winters as a result of climate change

The winter of 2023/24 continues a series of consistently milder winters in Central Europe, which experts say is related to global climate change. With temperatures that are now noticeably warmer even for us, it can set new records, but these are unlikely to last long. Since a reversal of developments is almost impossible in the foreseeable future, a rapid and permanent return of the cold, white winter to Central Europe currently seems unlikely.

Sources used: daswetter.com, wetter.com

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Bridget

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