Friday January 14, 2022
Act of sabotage like in Crimea?
US fears Russian secret operation
US intelligence officials are still unsure whether Russia has actually decided to attack Ukraine. However, a US government official reports that a camouflaged sabotage unit is said to be launching attacks on Russian forces in eastern Ukraine. This could justify an invasion.
The US has received indications of an upcoming Russian false flag operation in eastern Ukraine. A US government official told CNN that Moscow wanted to create an excuse for an invasion. The US has evidence that the agents are trained to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia’s own proxy forces, the official said, according to CNN.
“The Russian military plans to conduct these activities several weeks before a military invasion,” the official said. “We saw this script in 2014 with Crimea.” The US also observed how Russian audiences were being primed for intervention, including through narratives about the alleged deterioration in human rights in Ukraine and the increasing militancy of Ukrainian leaders.
USA and EU are preparing for escalation
In view of the tough talks with Russia, the European Union and the USA are preparing for a possible escalation in the Ukraine conflict: French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian spoke of a “collective determination to act”, should a Russian attack on the neighboring country come about. In Washington, US President Joe Biden’s National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, pledged that the United States would respond “robustly to any aggression.”
“The risk of Russian intervention in Ukraine is real and we have to be ready to react,” said one participant at the EU talks in Brest, who asked not to be named. Sanctions are on the table for this. The West cannot afford to hesitate again for weeks like it did after the Russian annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014.
US security adviser Sullivan admitted in Washington that Russia’s exact course of action remains uncertain: “The intelligence services have not made any assessment that the Russians have finally decided to take military action in Ukraine.” Russia still has the opportunity for further talks.
Berlin and Vienna are hoping for talks
Berlin, among others, is building on this: Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock emphasized in Brest that she did not want to let the thread of talks with Moscow break. During her first visit to Moscow on Tuesday, she is counting on “using communication channels at all different levels”. This requires a lot of perseverance, a lot of patience and “strong nerves”. The Green politician will be in Kiev beforehand on Monday, and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will be with Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin on Tuesday.
Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg also called for continued dialogue with Moscow: “As long as we are talking to each other, all hope is not lost,” he said in Brest. However, the situation is “more serious than we have seen in recent years”.
According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the West has promised written answers to Moscow’s demand for security guarantees next week. Russia had also dampened expectations of a continued dialogue: he sees no need for this for the time being, said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov.
Moscow publishes images of military maneuvers
Extensive crisis diplomacy was launched this week to defuse the explosive situation: Among other things, the NATO-Russia Council met for the first time in over two years, and there were also bilateral talks between the USA and Russia and negotiations within the framework of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Vienna.
The Kremlin has so far rejected accusations from the West that it is preparing for an invasion with a massive deployment of troops on the border with Ukraine. However, on Friday the Russian Defense Ministry released images of military maneuvers involving 2,500 soldiers and around 100 tanks around 50 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. There was also a cyber attack on Ukraine, which the EU sharply condemned. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell called it “conceivable” that Russia was behind it. Schallenberg said in Brest that a cyber attack could be the harbinger of military activities.