African heavyweights are straining the continent’s recovery

In South Africa, the Minister of Tourism, Mmamoloko Kubayi-Ngubane, is working hard to try to bring back international travelers. Since the appearance, in the fall of 2020, of the so-called “South African” variant of Covid-19, many airlines have canceled all their flights to the country. Less than half of the carriers that provided connections before the pandemic would have maintained or resumed their activity.

“South Africa is safe”, insists the minister, incriminating a ” disinformation “ on the health situation in the country, which reopened its borders a little over six months ago. The revival of tourism, an engine of the economy, is watched with anxiety after the horrors of 2020. During this annus horribilis, activity fell sharply by 7%.

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A violent shock caused by the pandemic and its attendant health restrictions – including one of the most draconian confinements on the planet – but also resulting from structural difficulties: electricity shortages, aging infrastructure, governance problems, rampant corruption … The country Africa’s most industrialized has been struggling for several years and its prospects for a rebound remain timid. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts growth of 3.1% in 2021, a modest catching up given the severity of the recession.

Chronic underinvestment

South Africa’s fate is in some ways reminiscent of that of the continent’s other two heavyweights: Nigeria and Angola. The two main African oil producers were hit hard by the drop in prices linked to the pandemic, while they had still not recovered from the 2014-2016 oil counter-shock. Despite the rise in prices and production, growth prospects remain gloomy: + 0.9% in Angola after three years of recession and + 2.4% in Nigeria.

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Like South Africa, these two countries struggle with chronic problems of governance and underinvestment. They suffer from high inflation (23% in March in Nigeria for food products), massive youth unemployment and a lack of diversification of the economic fabric. “These three economies have long since ceased to act as the continent’s locomotives. They were hardly brave before the Covid, which only increased their difficulties “, underlines Dominique Fruchter, economist in charge of Africa at Coface.

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