VSt was the expression used to describe the painful 1980s and 1990s in sub-Saharan Africa: the “lost decades”. Way of summarizing the procession of financial and social crises experienced at the time by countries suffering the repercussions of the fall in raw material prices and the rise in interest rates in the United States. Alas, this damning formula is once again brandished to depict the mediocre economic prospects south of the Sahara.
At the beginning of October, in its fall reportthe World Bank noted that gross domestic product per capita had stagnated since 2015 in the region: “A lost decade for growth. » “Africa needs international help to avoid a lost decade”, warned for its part as early as May, in the Financial TimesHanan Morsythe chief economist of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (Uneca).
After the many headwinds of recent years (counter-oil shock, Covid-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine, climate change), the continent must now deal with high interest rates (inflation requires) and therefore borrowing more expensive to repay. Half of the low income countries [classification de la Banque mondiale] is now on the verge of default. Added to this is international cooperation which is weakening. And the fear, for Africans, of not having their say at a time when the rules of the game of globalization in crisis are being rewritten.
Between Beijing and Washington
In Marrakech, mid-October, during the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, Africa seemed more audible than ever. On the occasion of these meetings, which were held for the first time in fifty years on the continent, the IMF allocated sub-Saharan countries a new seat on its board of directors. But will this symbolic advance guarantee that they will be better heard? Will they be able to prevent rich countries (China included) from focusing on their priorities, their own difficulties, their rivalries, to their detriment?
The war in Ukraine has already been a major shock. African countries are sorry to have had to pay so dearly for the consequences of a distant conflict and find themselves very neglected in comparison to the massive assistance granted to kyiv. Now, they are worried about the systemic competition between Beijing and Washington. Do not ask them to fall into one camp if the rupture is complete: they would risk losing on all fronts, from exports to capital flows and technology transfers.
“We should not have to choose friends or enemies”, insisted Vera Songwe, the former executive secretary of Uneca, in Marrakech. Africa is, according to the IMF, the region of the world most seriously affected by geo-economic fragmentation. Already, these tensions are making the debt renegotiations that certain countries need, such as Zambia today, perhaps Angola or Kenya tomorrow, more difficult.
Global competition and the energy transition will change the face of globalization. In the new commercial landscape that is emerging, comparative advantage is no longer so much low production costs as geopolitical alignment, proximity of value chains and climate virtue. This is the meaning, for example, of the carbon tax at the borders imagined by the Twenty-Seven. A mechanism that entered its testing phase at the beginning of October and whose effects some African countries fear on their economies.
Guinea-Bissau economist Carlos Lopes, advisor to several governments on the continent, calls this the “battle of jurisdictions” : new rules are enacted, methods and standards imposed, products banned. “But it’s a game played between powerful countries”, he reminds us. And the others will have no other option than to fall in line, whatever the repercussions for them.