The Paris Stock Exchange is sticking to its guns after accusing the day before of its biggest drop since the end of November. The resistance of Wall Street, which limited the damage with a 0.1% decline in the S&P 500 on Thursday, allows the rating to stabilize. Investors nonetheless remain subject to the warning provided by the Fed’s “minutes”.
The unexpected rise of 0.1 point to the record rate of 5% over one year in inflation in December in the euro zone (4.8% expected), also confirms the market in the feeling that if the peak approaches, the decline is not topical. The second part of the session will be animated by the December employment report in the United States.
At 12:25 p.m., the Bedroom 40 is stable at 7,256.34 points (+0.09%) in a business volume of 920 million euros. The contracts future March on US indices gained between 0.1% and 0.2%.
Fed focused on inflation
Investors were however warned: the prospect of a change of course by the US Federal Reserve had long been considered one of the great challenges of 2022. But the particularly offensive tone of the “minutes” published on Wednesday evening surprised. In essence, tight labor markets and runaway inflation could prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy more aggressively this year and tackle shrinking its balance sheet, which topped $8.8 trillion in December.
Employment statistics, expected at 2:30 p.m., and consumer prices, expected next week, are therefore the main indicators likely to support or invalidate the prospect of a faster-than-expected tightening of the the Fed.
According to the consensus formed by Bloomberg, job creation in the non-farm sector should have more than doubled to 447,000 last month. The unemployment rate is expected to fall by 0.1 point to 4.1%. The development of the average hourly wage will also be monitored. It is expected to have risen 0.4% over the month and 4.2% year on year, after rising 4.8% in November. Economists note, however, that the December figures will not include the outbreak of contamination at Omicron since the count does not cover the second half of the month.
Fed hawks in ambush
” The jobs numbers don’t really matter in terms of Fed policy expectations just yet. What really matters to her is inflationwarns Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote. Therefore, a low number, around 100,000 to 200,000, would not change the direction the Fed is about to take..
However, a solid number and a better jobless rate have the power to bolster Fed hawks that the US labor market no longer needs central bank support, and the central bank may withdraw it. if she thinks it will be harmless to the employment part of the equation. In that sense, strong employment numbers could wreak havoc on risky markets. Remember: Investors only like good numbers if they boost asset prices, and when they don’t, they lament “.
STMicroelectronics does better than expected
Biggest increase in the Cac 40, STMicroelectronics increased by 5.4%. The semiconductor manufacturer announced that it achieved fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 revenue of $3.56 billion (+11.2% sequentially), above its forecast, due to a sustained demand for its products in all its markets. For Citi analysts, these preliminary data are harbingers of strong demand in the short term and reflect the group’s ability to produce and supply in this period of shortage.
ArcelorMittal rose 3.3% on the back of the 1.4% rise in the Stoxx 600 for basic materials in anticipation of stimulus measures from China to boost demand. Eramet takes for its part 2.8%.
trigano won 7.3%. The motorhome manufacturer has published a turnover increase of 9.2% for the first quarter of its 2021-2022 financial year, in a context marked by strong demand for its products and despite supply difficulties. in rolling bases.
Finally, Elior down 4.5%. Societe Generale lowered its target price on the title of the collective catering group from 7.10 to 6.70 euros while maintaining its opinion to “keep”.