The capture of the city of Lysychansk on Sunday completed the Russian conquest of Luhansk, one of the two regions of Donbas, the industrialized eastern region of Ukraine which has become the scene of the greatest battle in Europe for generations.
Both sides suffered heavy losses in the struggle for Luhansk, especially during the siege of the twin cities of Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk. Both towns were left in ruins by the incessant Russian bombardments.
On Tuesday, Ukrainian forces set up new defensive lines in Donetsk, where they still control the main towns, while Putin told his troops to “absolutely rest and regain their military readiness”, while units in other regions continue to struggle.
Since the start of the conflict, Russia has demanded that Ukraine hand over Luhansk and Donetsk to pro-Moscow separatists, who have declared small independent states.
“This is Russia’s last victory on Ukrainian territory,” said Oleksiy Arestovych, adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in a video posted online.
“These were medium-sized cities. And it was from April 4 to July 4 – that’s 90 days. So much loss…”
Arestovych said that in addition to the battle for Donetsk, Ukraine hoped to launch counter-offensives in the south of the country.
“Taking the eastern towns means that 60% of Russian forces are now concentrated in the east and it is difficult to redirect them to the south,” he said.
“And there are no more forces that can be brought in from Russia. They have paid a heavy price for Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk.”
Some military experts felt that this hard-fought victory brought the Russian forces few strategic gains, and that the outcome of what was dubbed the “Battle of Donbas” hung in the balance.
“I think it’s a tactical victory for Russia, but at a huge cost,” said Neil Melvin of the RUSI London think tank. He compared the battle to the enormous fight for meager territorial gains that characterized the First World War.
“It took 60 days to make very slow progress,” he said. “I think the Russians can declare some sort of victory, but the key war battle is yet to come.”
According to Melvin, the decisive battle for Ukraine will likely take place not in the east, where Russia is mounting its main assault, but in the south, where Ukraine has begun a counter-offensive to reclaim territory.
“That’s where we see the Ukrainians making progress around Kherson. There are counter-attacks starting there and I think it’s more likely that we’ll see the momentum shift in favor of the game. Ukraine which then tries to mount a large-scale counter-offensive to repel the Russians,” he said.
A GIGANTIC EFFORT
Mr Zelenskiy said on Monday that despite Ukraine’s withdrawal from Lysychansk on Sunday, his troops were still fighting.
“Ukrainian Armed Forces are responding, repelling and destroying the offensive potential of the occupiers day after day,” Zelenskiy said in a nighttime video message.
“We must smash them. It is a difficult task. It requires time and superhuman effort. But we have no alternative.”
The Battle of Luhansk is the closest Moscow has come to achieving any of its stated goals since its forces were defeated attempting to take kyiv in March. It marks Russia’s biggest victory since capturing the southern port of Mariupol in late May.
Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine on February 24, calling it a “special military operation” to demilitarize its southern neighbor and protect Russian speakers from what he calls “fascist” nationalists. Ukraine and the West say this is a baseless pretext for blatant aggression aimed at seizing territory.
Serhiy Gaidai, the Ukrainian governor of Luhansk, acknowledged that his entire province was now effectively in Russian hands, but told Reuters: “We must win the war, not the battle for Lysychansk. […]. It hurts a lot, but it’s not losing the war”.
Gaidai said Ukrainian forces that withdrew from Lysychansk were now holding the line between Bakhmut and Sloviansk, preparing to repel a further Russian advance.
Reuters could not verify the battlefield accounts.
Ukraine’s hopes for a sustained counterattack hinge in part on receiving additional weapons from the West, including rockets that can neutralize Russia’s huge firepower advantage by striking deep behind the front line.
“It’s about how fast the supplies are coming in,” Arestovych said.
“In the West, there just aren’t enough guns to supply. After all, this is the biggest conflict since 1945… so more guns need to be produced, and that production is happening.” . And such a pace that by the fall there will be a very sizable set of weapons.”