Dn the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, supported by the West, has time changed sides? This is the lesson that many governments draw from the June 24 squad of Wagner’s mercenaries. Previously, it seemed that Ukraine and its allies might run out of steam before Russia, even if the latter could not decisively prevail on the ground.
Now the impression prevails that the Putin system could crack before the will and ability to repel the enemy crumbles on the Ukrainian side. The Prigozhin affair would be a harbinger of divisions within Vladimir Putin’s regime, destined to deepen if the Ukrainians hold.
That may indeed be the case, but it would be dangerous to rely too much on some kind of determinism that exempts Ukraine’s allies from pursuing and, in fact, increasing their support for Ukraine. First, it is true that luck, long the great ally of President Putin, seems to turn away from him since a fatal February 24 of last year. Luck is not chance or providence, but the ability to have the right instincts at the right time.
The strengths of the Kremlin
The fact remains that the master of the Kremlin still has a lot of cards – control of the multiple security apparatuses, a hitherto skilful dosage of repression and consideration for the population, an unparalleled handling of propaganda – to overcome the ordeal of the Prigozhin affair. His personal aura probably comes out chipped in the episode, but he can regain control.
Perhaps, moreover, he will find a good use for the rebel, for example, by letting him (for the moment) live in exchange for a mission for his minions of occult destabilization of the Baltic States from the Belarus.
Then, and above all, we must be clear-headed about the strengths of Westerners to ensure that time is really on Ukraine’s side. These are mainly sanctions and arms transfers. With regard to the sanctions, we can see that they do not have, for the moment, a decisive effect: the Russian GDP has certainly fallen, the deprivation of investments and technology from Western firms will greatly handicap the Russian economy. in the future, but, for now, inflation has been brought under control, the purchasing power of the population has not collapsed, Chinese vehicles have replaced, on the streets of Moscow or elsewhere, Western cars, the reserves of the central bank and the Sovereign Fund appear sufficient to finance the war effort.
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