After the Wagner uprising
The winner of the day is Alexander Lukashenko
A guest contribution by Jakob Wöllenstein
06/25/2023, 5:29 p.m
After the uprising of the Wagner mercenaries, many questions are unanswered – but one thing is clear: the Belarusian dictator can once again present himself as a peacemaker. Even if there are indications that he only played a supporting role in the negotiations.
Yesterday’s bombastic events left many observers open-mouthed. The armed uprising of the Wagner troops against Moscow, which some took to be the beginning of a civil war, was over as abruptly as it had begun. And not because of the promised crackdown, but because of an agreement mediated by the Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko.
Many details are still unclear about what actually happened yesterday before the eyes of the world. How did it happen that Prigozchin’s mercenary troops advanced to a few hundred kilometers from Moscow without much resistance – by the way, symbolically on June 24th: the day on which Napoleon once began his Russian campaign? Did “Putin’s cook” really expect that the regular army, in whose ranks his criticism of the deficits in warfare is presumably shared, would spontaneously join him in droves? Was it really a phone call from Minsk that brought him back from his plans so quickly? And is it really just over like nothing happened?
Is Belarus just a stopover?
The latter can probably be ruled out. After the increasingly open power struggles within the Russian security structures, the Wagner uprising clearly posed the “question of trust” – and answered it for the moment. The Wagner mercenaries must submit to the Defense Ministry, and the army and other forces, such as Chechen regional dictator Ramzan Kadyrov, have stressed their loyalty. But it is hard to imagine that a man who took Moscow by force of arms and who, as Putin himself said, “stabbed the country in the middle of a war” with a “knife in the back” would now be peacefully retired is hard to imagine.
What is remarkable, however, is that Lukashenko of all people “prevented a massacre” and is said to have negotiated the solution: the rebellious mercenaries remain unpunished and their boss “goes to Belarus”. What exactly this means is also unclear. Will he stay there or is this a stopover? Is part of the deal that he withdraws into private life or is it even Lukashenko’s calculation to use him to build his own private army in Belarus to secure his regime? In any case, the independent Belarusian press vehemently rejects the decision to “take him in”.
The medium Zerkalo, for example, comments that Belarus, drawn deeper into the war by including this “monster”, could become the target of retaliatory attacks by Ukraine. In the morning, the democratic forces around Svetlana Tichanovskaya had called on the Belarusian security forces not to take part in internal Russian power struggles, but to be ready to liberate their homeland from the dictatorship and from the orbit of the Kremlin. On the evening of the same day, of all people, Lukashenko appeared to be the only winner.
Lukashenko presents himself as a peacemaker again
There are indications that he only played a minor role in the negotiations between Moscow and Prigozhin. But outwardly he can and will claim the success for himself. This result should suit him particularly well, since it will at least allow him to tie in with his earlier policies in terms of propaganda.
Even after the illegal annexation of Crimea, Minsk positioned itself as an “honest mediator” who brings opponents together and works out regional security solutions. Even after February 24, 2024, the regime offered itself as a place for negotiations, and the first talks actually took place in Belarus. Now Lukashenko can stage himself again as a peacemaker, who this time even saved his “big brother” from ruin. This strengthens his position for the moment – also towards Moscow. In the medium term, however, this is a Pyrrhic victory at best. His regime is heavily dependent on the support of the Kremlin, which in turn has been visibly weakened by the revolt.
In any case, yesterday showed once again that in view of the ongoing war, sudden developments, even those considered unthinkable, are still possible, from peaceful miracles to bloody catastrophes. For Western politics, this means once again preparing for a wide range of scenarios in order to be able to seize possible opportunities and, if possible, to turn the wheel of history in the direction of good when it begins to move.
Jakob Wollenstein heads the Belarus office of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation based in Vilnius, Lithuania.