According to the second GfS survey, the AHV reform has good chances at the ballot box, but the number of people saying no has increased. Because of the widespread skepticism in Latin Switzerland, a scenario that has so far been little discussed is conceivable.
In French-speaking Switzerland, there is greater resistance to the retirement age of 65 for women than in German-speaking Switzerland (Lausanne, September 5, 2022).
The tension is great. Not least in the lobby of the Federal Palace, where the autumn session began on Monday, there is almost only one topic for many: is it enough or not? What is meant is the “AHV 21” reform, which will be voted on on September 25th. It includes two bills that will only come into force if both are accepted: a revision of the AHV law, which above all sets the retirement age for women at 65, and an increase in VAT in the constitution.
The vote is not only important for the AHV, but also in terms of power politics. If the left prevails against the closed bourgeois camp including GLP and the united business associations, this should have a signal effect beyond old-age provision.
It doesn’t look like it at the moment, but that may change. According to the second survey by GfS Bern on behalf of the SRG, which was published on Wednesday, the AHV reform would have found a majority at the beginning of September. 59 percent stated that they definitely or tended to agree, 38 percent wanted to say no, definitely or tend to. Thus, while the proponents still have a lead, it has shrunk significantly compared to the first survey. At that time the ratio was 64 to 33 percent.
Ticino against higher taxes
In the case of the second proposal, that on value added tax, approval is somewhat greater (63 percent). However, it has also decreased compared to the first survey. It is striking that both proposals are met with greater resistance in western Switzerland and Ticino than in German-speaking Switzerland.
At this point, the authors of the GfS study make an explosive point: Should skepticism about the tax part of the AHV reform continue to increase in Latin-speaking Switzerland, this could have far-reaching consequences. Because the VAT rates are enshrined in the constitution, increasing them requires not only the people but also the estates. If the cantons of western Switzerland and Ticino now say no as a whole, this would correspond to seven states. With another four and a half estates with a No majority, the entire reform would fail in more estates – a scenario that has hardly been discussed so far. The survey itself does not allow any conclusions to be drawn about the status.
In order to actually prevent the reform in this way, the opponents in western Switzerland would have to step up their efforts. According to the second GfS survey, 56 percent wanted to vote more or less for the increase in VAT. In Ticino, on the other hand, the rejection is realistic (48 percent yes).
Yes “seems more likely”
Despite the ambiguities regarding the number of estates, it should ultimately be decisive whether the revised AHV law with the higher retirement age for women finds a majority. The GfS authors state that the opinion-forming process and the main campaigns are in full swing. Despite progress, the opponents have not yet succeeded in gaining the upper hand in arguments. According to the survey, a strong argument in favor of the reform is the safeguarding of AHV without pension cuts.
What is unusual is that a bill from the authorities meets with growing rejection in the course of the referendum campaign. This is otherwise more likely to be observed in popular initiatives. According to the GfS, however, a majority of the people in favor of the AHV reform «seems more likely» than its rejection, in particular due to the lead of the Yes side and the argumentative attitudes.
The differences between the sexes are still large: 72 percent of men want to accept the AHV proposal according to the GfS, 51 percent of women want to reject it.
Once tight, once not
The race for the proposal to reform the withholding tax is even tighter than for the AHV. At the beginning of September, almost 47 percent voted for the change and 44 percent against. The yes share has changed little compared to the first survey, but the rejection has increased significantly (plus 9 percentage points). In contrast to the AHV debate, there are still a relatively large number of undecided people. According to the GfS, a close decision is emerging, the final mobilization will probably be decisive.
On the other hand, the originators of the mass animal husbandry initiative should not have high hopes. At the beginning of September, her proposal would have been narrowly rejected: 47 percent wanted to vote yes, 52 percent no. Here, too, the no camp in particular has increased. As GfS writes, from the point of view of the initiators, the hurdle of increasing the number of stands seems “hardly to be overcome”. However, a respectable success should still be possible: if left-wing and environmentally affiliated circles could be strongly mobilized, a result well over 40 percent would be realistic.