(AOF) – Airbus (-0.88% to 148.94 euros) signs one of the biggest declines in the CAC 40 following mixed results in the fourth quarter. Over the last three months of 2023, its net profit fell by 13% to 1.46 billion euros. “It reflects an impact of -65 million euros linked to the financial result and a tax impact of -427 million euros,” explains the aeronautical group. On the other hand, its adjusted Ebit increased by 3% to 2.207 billion euros and its sales increased by 11% to 22.88 billion euros. The first, however, is 3% lower than the consensus.
Concerning its 2023 accounts, Airbus generated a consolidated net profit of 3.789 billion euros compared to 4.247 billion euros in 2022, i.e. a consolidated earnings per share of 4.80 euros compared to 5.40 euros in 2022.
Last year, consolidated adjusted EBIT stood at 5.838 billion euros compared to 5.627 billion euros a year ago. Consolidated turnover increased by 11% year-on-year to 65.4 billion euros.
Consolidated free cash flow amounts to 3.885 billion euros compared to 4.324 billion euros in 2022.
“Results were broadly in line with our expectations, although free cash flow was above our expectations and reflected the continued strong flow of new commercial aircraft orders,” said Tom Chruszcz, senior director at Fitch. Ratings. The analyst forecasts 2024 earnings and underlying cash flow to grow at a higher rate than revenue.
He adds that Airbus is well positioned to do this given the ramp-up of key programs and the increasingly mature phasing of the A320neo.
For its part, in its note, UBS expected investors to react negatively to Airbus’ annual results: “They reinforce our view that cost inflation is higher than expected and the special dividend is less important than some expected. The enthusiasm generated by the solidity of free cash flow in 2023 will be offset by the forecasts for 2024.”
Exceptional dividend and disappointing forecasts
The Airbus Board of Directors will propose at the 2024 Annual General Meeting, which will be held on April 10, 2024, the payment of a 2023 dividend of 1.80 euros per share as in 2022 as well as an exceptional dividend of 1.00 euros per share.
“The exceptional dividend of 1 euro per share is a positive sign of management’s confidence in the underlying strength of the market and the expectation of improved cash generation. Its size and nature reflect conservatism of the company’s management – a factor that underlies the credit rating”, explains Tom Chruszcz.
In terms of outlook for 2024, Airbus forecasts around 800 deliveries of commercial aircraft and an adjusted EBIT of between 6.5 and 7 billion euros. This last objective is lower than expectations: 7.2 billion euros. It also anticipates free cash flow before customer financing of around 4 billion euros while the consensus is 4.8 billion euros.
“This delivery target is very realistic but is highly dependent on the absence of further disruptions in supply chains, particularly with regard to the GTF engine,” notes Tom Chruszcz. Analysts on average anticipated a target of 813 deliveries.
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