Danish researcher Tore Refslund Hamming, attached to the International Center for the Study of Radicalization at King’s College London, analyzes the consequences of the elimination of Ayman Al-Zawahiri on Al-Qaida.
What is the legacy of Ayman Al-Zawahiri, who led Al-Qaida for more than ten years?
For many observers, his time at the head of the jihadist organization was a failure. They argue that he was not as effective as Osama bin Laden, they cite his lack of charisma. This view ignores the fact that Zawahiri had to face a very difficult context, in particular the enormous challenge posed by the Islamic State. If we take this into account, we can say that Zawahiri was a very good leader. He was able to overcome these trials, preserve the cohesion of the organization. Apart from the Iraqi branch of Al-Qaeda, from which the Islamic State organization emerged, and a few individuals, there were no major defections. On the contrary, during the last ten years, the organization has become stronger. Its expansion continued, particularly in the Sahel and Somalia.
What do we know about Al-Zawahiri’s last year, between the recapture of Kabul by the Taliban in August 2021 and his elimination by an American drone?
Little information is available. It is known that he lived for a long time in the tribal area straddling the Pakistani-Afghan border, more probably on the Pakistani side, and that a few months ago, following the victory of the Taliban, he resettled in Kabul.
What impact will Al-Zawahiri’s death have on Al-Qaida?
Al-Qaeda will survive the death of Al-Zawahiri as it survived the death of Bin Laden. It’s a more structured organization than you might think, driven by a very strong ideology. It is not limited to a few individuals. The disappearance of Al-Zawahiri may even be an opportunity, the occasion for Al-Qaeda to lead a younger, more dynamic personality.
Who is best placed to succeed Al-Zawahiri?
His natural successor is Egyptian Seif Al-Adel, an Al-Qaeda veteran in his sixties who lives in Iran and has significant military expertise. He made a career in the Egyptian army, before joining Afghanistan at the end of the 1980s, to participate in the jihad against the Soviets. Within Al-Qaida, he is highly respected, he has very good connections with the various branches. We also know that he was opposed to the attacks of September 11, 2001.
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