The increasing spread of electromobility is likely to have a major impact on jobs – or cost a lot of jobs: According to a current study by the Ifo Institute, up to 221,000 jobs in the automotive industry will be on the verge in the next four years in Germany alone.
The study commissioned by the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) puts the number of jobs linked to the construction of gasoline and diesel cars at 613,000. Between 29 and 36 percent of this would be available by 2025. The more electric cars, the fewer jobs, that could be summed up.
Even if around 86,000 of those potentially affected could retire by then, there is still a large gap: Almost 100,000 people will soon have to find a new job, said study director Professor Oliver Falck. Retraining and advanced training could cushion the decline, but only partially. Ifo President Clemens Fuest said it was about “people who are specialized for a certain activity” and so far have mostly earned well. “Individuals are not that easy to move from A to B,” said VDA President Hildegard Müller.
And it remains to be seen whether battery cells and other products will be manufactured in Germany or elsewhere in the future. On the bottom line, “I wouldn’t dare to make a forecast”, said Falck.
Problems for suppliers
Corporations could also bring outsourced production processes back into the company, said Falck. But that would also be at the expense of suppliers who develop and manufacture parts for e-cars. Small businesses that specialize in a few products are often unable to replace parts that are no longer in demand with other products.
In 2019, the production value of all products directly dependent on the combustion engine was 149 billion euros. But e-cars no longer need engine blocks, cylinder heads, pistons, fuel pumps, spark plugs, mufflers and catalytic converters. Brake and clutch manufacturers are also affected because there is less wear and tear.
Parallel structures will be abolished
Research, development and the creation of new capacities for e-cars and digitization have supported employment in the automotive industry so far. In the meantime, car manufacturers and suppliers have started to cut jobs. “A central question in the coming years” for the Ifo researchers is whether the dismantling of parallel structures for combustion and electric cars and lower added value, for example in the manufacture of batteries, will cost more jobs.
The construction of an electric car is fundamentally less expensive than the production of a vehicle with a combustion engine.