Directional decision in Turkey: Around 64 million eligible voters set the political course for the future in the emerging regional power between Europe and Asia. Will Erdogan lose his post in Ankara? In Germany, around 1.5 million German-Turks have a say.
Big election day in Turkey: In the parliamentary and presidential elections, there is a close race between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the previous opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroğlu away. The incumbent seems weakened, in terms of health and politics. Will there be a change in Turkey after two decades under Erdogan?
The polling stations are closed and the votes are being counted. Around 64 million eligible voters were invited to vote by 5:00 p.m. (local time, 4:00 p.m. CEST). In the run-up to the election, there were signs that Kilicdaroglu could actually replace Erdogan in the presidency: the last polls before the election date on May 14 put the top candidate of the Turkish Social Democrats clearly ahead, in some surveys he and Erdogan were almost equal.
One of the four candidates for the presidency, Muharrem Ince from the Fatherland Party, resigned a few days before the election. “I withdraw my candidacy,” said Ince. This increases the probability of a decision among the remaining three candidates in the first round of voting.
Note: The infographics on the presidential and parliamentary elections are constantly updated.
In addition to incumbent Erdogan from the Islamic-conservative AKP, opposition leader Kilicdaroglu and Sinan Ogan, a candidate from an ultra-nationalist alliance, who was given little chance of winning the elections, were also in the running for the presidency. In polls, Ogan was lagging behind Kilicdaroglu, Erdogan and the now eliminated Ince.
The outcome of the election is open: the new president will be whoever gets more than 50 percent of the votes in the first ballot. If no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the votes in the first ballot, a runoff will be held on May 28th. In the parliamentary elections taking place at the same time, observers are also expecting significant losses for the previous governing party, the AKP.
With the election, Turkey is facing an epochal decision: the opposition has announced that it will break with Erdogan’s increasingly authoritarian course if it wins the election. Kilicdaroglu has promised a return to democracy. He wants to release political prisoners after a change of power.
Erdogan’s challenger Kilicdaroglu is running as a CHP candidate. The Social Democrats and the pro-Kurdish HDP have so far been the two largest opposition parties in parliament. Due to an imminent party ban, HDP politicians are on the ballot paper under the banner of the Green Left Party. The party had previously merged with smaller left-wing parties to form the so-called Labor and Freedom Alliance.
Poll results for the general election
The up-and-coming regional power Türkiye has around 85 million inhabitants. According to the 1982 constitution, the country on the threshold between Europe and Asia is a democratic, laicist, social and constitutional republic. Erdogan has ruled as president since 2014 – with increasingly authoritarian tendencies. But Erdogan was already the most powerful politician in the country: before Turkey was converted into a presidential system, he led the Turkish government as prime minister from 2003.
During Erdogan’s tenure as head of government and president, the country initially experienced a strong economic upswing, a pronounced construction boom with spectacular infrastructure projects and growing importance in foreign policy. Erdogan’s leadership style and, above all, his interference in monetary policy are controversial: In recent years there have been major social upheavals, triggered among other things by sharp increases in food prices and horrendously high inflation.
Domestically, the attempted coup of 2016 and the state reactions overshadowed the social climate. In 2018, at Erdogan’s instigation, a constitutional amendment was made that significantly expanded the president’s influence and weakened parliament. Parts of the population reject Erdogan and his strictly conservative AKP.
The severe earthquake in the southeast in early February 2023 turned large parts of the country into a disaster zone. More than 50,000 people lost their lives in the affected regions near the border with Syria. Hundreds of thousands lost their homes. In the days and weeks that followed, critical voices were raised: lax building regulations, a lack of state controls and inadequate civil protection had contributed to the enormous extent of the destruction, it is said. Erdogan’s crisis management did nothing to increase his popularity.
President Erdogan has a lot of support in parts of Turkish society. After 20 years in government, key positions in the administration and civil service have been occupied by candidates loyal to the AKP.
“Rally of the century”: Erdogan supporters in Istanbul
(Photo: via REUTERS)
During the election campaign, Erdogan pulled out all the stops: Among other things, he promised the approximately 700,000 civil servants a wage increase of 45 percent. During a campaign appearance on the last weekend before the election date, hundreds of thousands of Erdogan supporters gathered at an airfield in Istanbul to celebrate the incumbent and AKP top candidate. 10,000 buses brought people from 39 provinces onto the tarmac, and aerial photos of the event were broadcast across the country.
20 years ago, Erdogan started out as a reformer and a beacon of hope for a cosmopolitan Türkiye. At times, the country’s accession to the EU was even up for debate. In the course of his tenure, however, the 69-year-old ruled with an increasingly heavy hand.
The parliamentary and presidential elections are also attracting a great deal of attention abroad: in Germany, German-Turks eligible to vote began voting two and a half weeks before the actual election day. On April 27, specially equipped polling stations opened in the consulates.
A good 1.5 million Turks were able to cast their votes in Germany in 26 Turkish missions abroad, as reported by the Turkish news agency Anadolu, with reference to figures from the Turkish electoral commission YSK. According to this, a total of 3.4 million Turks living abroad in a total of 73 countries worldwide can take part in the parliamentary and presidential elections.
In Turkey, elections are held every five years. The Turkish diaspora in Germany makes up the lion’s share of Turkish foreign voters. Overall, however, foreign voters only account for a fraction of all votes.
In the past parliamentary and presidential elections in Turkey in 2018, 49.8 percent of those entitled to vote in Germany exercised their right to vote, the proportion has never been higher. Back then, support for Erdogan was stronger in Germany than in Turkey itself.
Review: Election result 2018
The Turkish community in Germany (TGD) described the election as a “huge issue” for Germans of Turkish origin and Turks living in Germany. It is also about “social cohesion in Germany,” said a TGD spokesman for the AFP news agency. The club sees the economic development and high inflation in Turkey as an important issue of choice.
Already in the first days of voting, significantly more German-Turkish voters took part nationwide than in the last election in 2018, said TGD federal chairman Gökay Sofuoglu before the election. “When I talk to people, I get the feeling that it’s a fateful choice for many,” he said.
Voting abroad was possible for Turks eligible to vote up until the actual election day on May 14. In addition to the polling stations in the consulates, registered voters can also cast their votes at numerous border crossings to Turkey.
In 2018, Erdogan won the presidential election in the first round. Back then, shortly after the military coup that was directed against him but ultimately failed, he received 52.6 percent of the votes.