Lhe energy transition would lead to a reduction in the influence of extractive industries, say, counter-intuitively, Dutch researchers from the universities of Leiden and Delft (“ Energy transition will require substantially less mining than the current fossil system “, Joule No. 7/11, November 2023). Once coal extraction has disappeared, only the metallurgical mining influence will remain, on a scale much smaller than that of coal, and above all much lower than the forecasts announcing a surge in the extraction of the metals necessary for the transition – the famous “rare metals” – which have fueled fears of a shortage and denunciation of the growing influence of extractive industries (nickel, manganese, lithium, cobalt, etc.) with destructive consequences for the environment and human rights.
The metals consumption outlook was until now based on those of the World Bank, dating from 2020, and on those of the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its report “ Zero net by 2050 », published in 2021. The first built its scenario based on one of its own studies on “the role of metals in a low-carbon future”, dating from 2017. And the second was inspired by the first.
The Dutch study, unlike those of institutions accustomed to the non-recyclable nature of hydrocarbons, reached this optimistic result by taking into account the improvement in the recycling of the stock of metals already accumulated over ten years, a stock which should continue to grow until 2040, according to the researchers.
This study, however, evaluates the rest of the supply-demand balance by unfortunately using the old IEA metal demand hypotheses, even though these would require at least an update, or even a software change. Because they ignore the greatest chance of reducing mining influence: the reduction of consumption, guided by substitution technologies in the production, transport, storage and consumption of electricity.
Rare metal madness
Of course, nothing is done without metals in wind turbines or photovoltaic panels, in very high voltage line transport, in batteries and in electric cars. But innovation in metal consumption is permanent. It is true that this industrial facet of the engineering world is not intuitive for those uninitiated in the academic world, politics or finance.
You have 60% of this article left to read. The rest is reserved for subscribers.