Wednesday, September 8th, 2021
Alliance options in autumn 2021
The ntv.de coalition calculator for the federal election
By Martin Morcinek
Political play of colors with weighty consequences: Which coalitions would be conceivable on the basis of the most recent polls after the federal election? Which party alliances would be theoretically possible?
There is not much time left until election Sunday: a few weeks before the general election, the eyes are increasingly turning to possible coalition options after September 26th. Meanwhile, the eyebrows are not only wandering up among party strategists. This time it could be quite complicated, because for the first time a coalition of three parties will have to be formed.
The ntv.de coalition calculator shows the purely mathematical possible coalitions based on the current survey results:
Which party will provide the next chancellor? The Union, SPD and Greens are comparatively close to one another in most of the surveys. In order to achieve a viable majority, the parties have to set up three-party constellations. The most recent polls by polling institutes put several options within the realm of possibility.
Coalition negotiations with the AfD and a coalition between the Union and the Left are currently completely excluded. The SPD and the Greens link any merger of Red-Red-Green to a commitment to NATO, which the left is currently still rejecting. Apart from that, several other color combinations are possible.
In the spring, many observers still assumed that Germany could get a black-green alliance at the federal level after the general election. When the Greens caught up with their candidate for Chancellor Annalena Baerbock, there was even some speculation about a green-black alliance. Then came the summer with an election campaign that seemed to revolve around marginal and secondary issues for weeks. Greens and Union lost a lot in the polls.
The current weaknesses in the polls make a black-green two-party alliance seem unlikely. A harmonious relationship would be difficult anyway: In key issues such as climate policy, there are contradictions that are difficult to bridge. And on both sides there are likely to be incalculable MPs in the ranks of the newly elected parliamentary groups. Black-green would therefore need a certain buffer, a little more than just a narrow majority.
And black and red? According to the latest surveys, the Union and the SPD are close to each other and together well over 40 percent. With this, the possibility of a continuation of the previous grand coalition comes into play, at least in theory. However, the prospects for this are considered to be rather unlikely. Even after the previous election, the SPD was forced to be forced into a new coalition. According to some observers, it would only accept this under social democratic leadership. There is likely to be resistance to this in the Union.
A so-called Germany coalition consisting of the Union, SPD and FDP is traded as at least a conceivable option. At least the polls see a majority for this. While the strategists in the Union are apparently flirting with it, the resistance in the SPD is likely to be great.
Will there be a new attempt at a Jamaica coalition instead of a black-red-yellow coalition in Germany? A black-green-yellow alliance of the Union, the Greens and the FDP was the preferred option at least for the CDU in 2017. This time there could also be a majority for it. However, the euphoria among those involved for such an experiment has noticeably diminished in the past few months.
So is the traffic light coalition more realistic? An alliance of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP would also be an option for which there are currently chances of a mathematical majority. Leading FDP politicians have almost ruled out such an alliance led by the Greens. Should the SPD become the strongest force, things might look different.
Such plans would be a real bogeyman for the Union. The Christian Democrats hope that FDP leader Christian Lindner will play the “kingmaker” for them and prefer an alliance with the Union. But there are no guarantees. The SPD could advertise with references to the personal approval ratings: The FDP leader could be faced with the choice of entering into a coalition with the unpopular union candidate Armin Laschet, or with Olaf Scholz, who – so the pollsters say – significantly more Germans Trust the role of chancellor. The SPD candidate for Chancellor himself recently campaigned specifically for the Liberals.
But there is also some alternative to the traffic light. As indirectly indicated by Laschet in the Triell on RTL and ntv, the SPD could also carry out plans for a red-red-green coalition solution. Such an alliance of the SPD, the Greens and the Left Party has long been mathematically ruled out. The latest surveys, however, move red-red-green into the realm of possibility.
SPD Chancellor candidate Scholz and Green Chancellor candidate Baerbock have at least not categorically ruled out such an alliance, but have so far only linked it to conditions that are unlikely. The Union, in turn, is trying in the election campaign to step up against a coalition of the three parties as a shift to the left, and hopes that it will be able to win over more voters.
Question mark in the coalition bill
Small unknowns include the free voters, who are seen in some surveys at more than three percent. If they get over the hurdle, they could still play a role under a tight majority. It is also still unclear how many votes the AfD will get. Further votes are likely to be split between small and micro parties. And the share of the vote of the non-voters is still far from certain.
It is clear that Germany will have to adjust to a complicated situation the evening after election day. In any case, like many other politicians, Greens co-leader Robert Habeck expects lengthy negotiations. However, Habeck is expecting an agreement by Christmas. As a reminder: after the 2017 federal election, Chancellor Angela Merkel was only able to take up her fourth term in March 2018.
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