When it comes to economic competence, voters in the USA see Trump ahead of Biden – despite the good current development of the US economy. The incumbent is also further behind in surveys in the important “swing states”.
According to a survey, voters in the USA consider the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump to be more capable on economic issues than the Democratic incumbent Joe Biden. This emerges from a Reuters/Ipsos survey. Accordingly, 41 percent of those surveyed said that Trump had a better approach to the issue. For Biden it was 34 percent. In March the gap was three percentage points and in February it was six.
The state of the economy is one of the most important factors affecting Biden’s re-election chances. Consumers have suffered from sharply rising prices for years. However, inflation in the US has declined in recent months.
But only until last month. In March it increased slightly again at 3.5 percent compared to the previous month. A timely interest rate cut by the US central bank, which some had hoped for, is likely to be postponed until later in the year due to inflation data. In the survey of 1,016 adults, Biden’s approval rating also fell slightly from 40 to 38 percent.
Meanwhile, the economy in general is growing significantly. Over 300,000 new jobs were created last month and both retail sales and production increased. The latest IMF forecast also sees significant growth in the US economy this year. The report predicts a 2.7 percent increase in GDP in 2024.
Trump ahead in swing states
In addition to economic development, other political areas are likely to be crucial in the election for the White House. This particularly includes migration policy with the situation at the US border with Mexico. Thousands of people, mostly from Central and Latin America, are currently trying to reach the USA every day because they are fleeing poverty and conflict in their home countries. Last December, the US Border Patrol reported more than 300,000 arrests – more than ever before in a month.
But the issue of criminalization and access to abortion has also gained momentum since the landmark “Roe v. Wade” ruling was overturned by the Supreme Court in 2022. While Biden wants to establish the right to access to abortion at the national level, Trump recently advocated leaving the decision to the states. Several Republican-governed states have since implemented very restrictive legislation that prevents abortions.
The so-called “swing states” are particularly important in the presidential election in November, where a close outcome is expected. These are states in which the polls are particularly close and candidates from both parties regularly have a chance of winning. This year the focus is particularly on Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
However, the 77-year-old Trump has a lead of several percentage points in most of the seven states, according to the US portal 270towin. Only in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is Biden slightly ahead of the presumptive Republican presidential candidate in current polls.