(Boursier.com) — Rebounding at the start of the session after yesterday’s 37% fall, Alstom fell again by almost 4% on the Paris stock market below 13 euros, the lowest in almost 20 years. The fault always and again is the latest information from the group, via a preliminary financial report concerning the first half of the 2023-2024 fiscal year, ending September 30: The announcement of cash flow expectations still does not appear on the stock marketat -1.15 ME for the first half of this fiscal year, compared to -45 ME during the first half of the previous year. Free cash flow for the 2023-2024 fiscal year is now expected to be in a range between -500 and -750 ME, whereas it was previously announced as being ‘significantly positive’…
Free cash flow for the second half of the 2023/24 fiscal year will be significantly positive thanks to the reversal of certain negative factors from the 1st half and new actions undertaken as part of a new Cash Focus program set up by Alstom, however, clarified management. As for analysts, if HSBC remains a buy on the stock, the latter adjusts its price target from 35 to 23 euros, while Barclays, which is “underweight” on the stock, has already reduced its target from 16.5 to only 12 euros, analysts citing very poor cash management in terms of expectations. For its part, Deutsche Bank, which is to “keep”, also reduced its target from 30 to 23 euros: The announcement is “a hard blow to the credibility of management” according to the German bank’s analysts. Alstom should now end the year with a net debt of 3 billion euros, or around a billion more than the previous forecast according to DB, which revised down by 8% on average the group’s earnings per share estimates for 2023-2025.
From the best to S2…
During the past period, Alstom recorded 8.4 billion euros in order intake (E10.1 billion during the first half of the previous financial year). The “orders to turnover” ratio is 1 for the first half of the fiscal year, marking a slight improvement compared to the first quarter…
Alstom expects an increase in its order intake in the second half, in particular thanks to projects won but not yet in force and therefore not recorded, as well as certain orders postponed from the first to the second half of the 2023/24 fiscal year. “We confirm our outlook for an ‘orders to turnover’ ratio greater than 1 for the 2023/24 fiscal year”indicates Alstom management, which is clearly not enough to reassure the market.
Alstom’s turnover amounts to €8.3 billion for the first half of this fiscal year (E8.3 billion during the first half of the previous financial year). This represents an increase of +6.5% on an organic basis and 2.7% on an actual basis, supported by the ramp-up in the Rolling Stock activity, a good performance in Services and Signaling, and the expected catch-up. for the Systems activity. Sales relating to non-performing contracts reached around 1 billion euros in the first half, and the objective of 1.7 billion euros for the fiscal year is confirmed. Alstom confirms its “prospect of organic revenue growth for the 2023-2024 fiscal year beyond 5%”.