Lhe considerable lead taken by the National Rally (RN) in the polls for the European election in June nourishes a little music, that of an election played out in advance, which we readily associate with another refrain, that of a presumed disinterest – or hostility – of the French towards Brussels. Our electoral survey helps to qualify these ideas.
Let us first remember that in 2019, despite the “yellow vest” crisis which was at the heart of the national campaign, La République en Marche (the former name of Renaissance) was close behind the RN by a few nearest hundredths. The presidential party, although weakened on the domestic scene, still benefited from the momentum of the 2017 presidential election and, to some extent, from concerns linked to a still ongoing Brexit and the antagonistic America of Donald Trump.
Today, the tiny gap has transformed into a gaping chasm, with 31% voting intention for the list of Jordan Bardella, the president of the RN, and 18% for that led by Valérie Hayer, the head of the list of Renaissance. The rest of the national political landscape continues its fragmentation: 11.5% for the Socialist Party, 8.5% for Europe Ecologie-Les Verts, 7% for Les Républicains and La France insoumise.
No questioning of the EU
Three months before the election, nothing is decided yet. Let us not fuel this dangerous idea according to which the June 9 deadline is only a mid-term formality, a sanction vote inflicted on the government, for the benefit of an RN which only has 2027 in its sights. What emerges from our survey is that, despite the historic progress of the RN, attachment to the European project has not regressed: 73% of French people say they are in favor of it. Among 18-24 year olds, this score rises to 80%, and to 86% among farmers who are, among all the socio-professional categories questioned, the most attached to the community project.
Certainly, a majority of French people (54%) disagree with the way this project is implemented today, but they do not question its existence. We even observe an increase of 4 points compared to the last election among its most fierce defenders. This attachment is often linked to the ability of the French to enjoy the benefits of the European Union (EU) through their lifestyles or their income: 66% of households with the lowest incomes are in favor of the European project, they are more 85% among the wealthiest.
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