The committee for monitoring and anticipating health risks (Covars), which succeeded the scientific council, delivered its first opinion on Monday 24 October. He evokes a new epidemic wave of Covid from“moderate intensity”while remaining cautious for the future in the face of potential new variants.
“A pandemic rebound in France and Europe affects the elderly and remains for the moment of moderate intensity but with a dynamic to be monitored”says Covars, chaired by immunologist Brigitte Autran.
In its sights in particular: the rapid and uncertain growth of the Omicron BQ.1.1 sub-variant, detected in France in mid-September and which now represents 15% of the viruses detected in mainland France, and nearly half in Ile-de- France.
Be that as it may, the epidemic restart observed in France, as in part of Europe, “does not seem to be due to the appearance of a new variant stricto sensu”he believes, but rather to a set of other factors (decline in collective immunity, climatic conditions favorable to the spread of the virus, etc.).
“Close to the epidemic peak”
According to the watchdog, “the analysis of the growth rates of the various epidemiological indicators suggests that we could be very close to the epidemic peak”. But “these encouraging signals must be tempered” because of a “rapid growth of the BQ.1.1 variant on the national territory”.
What if the epidemic wave appeared in mid-September 2022 “has less direct hospital impact than previous waves”even before the start of winter “Hospital capacities remain significantly reduced”, he warns. Other winter infectious diseases such as influenza, bronchiolitis or gastroenteritis could also affect the health system.
The Covars therefore recommends continuing the prevention and vaccination measures put in place to deal with Covid. Several levers must be like this “activated” : “Vaccinate, promote the wearing of masks, control air quality”he advocates.