Statistics, do you want them, here they are! Tuesday’s session will be intense. Even before the opening of the Paris Stock Exchange, operators will immerse themselves in the analysis of official Chinese PMI indexes for May. Sanitary measures having been relaxed in Shanghai, where the authorities have unveiled an arsenal of measures to support the economy (tax cuts for businesses, acceleration of infrastructure projects, aid for the purchase of electric vehicles, etc. .), it is possible that the PMI surveys will improve. This is the bet made by the economists surveyed by Bloomberg. On average, they expect a PMI index of 49 points in the manufacturing sector in May, against 47.4 in April, and 45 in services, against 41.9 in April. In both cases, the indicators will nevertheless remain below the 50 mark, which serves as the boundary between the contraction zone and the expansion phase of activity.
No decline in view of inflation
Closer to home, there will be a double question ofinflation in France and in the euro zone. Unsurprisingly, the preliminary consumer price index is expected to rise. It should reach 5.7% over one year in May in France, against 5.4% in April. ” Without the government measures limiting the energy shock, French inflation would be around 7% over one year, close to the European average, instead of around 5% “, emphasizes the firm Oddo BHF. Soaring prices should limit household spending, although April’s figure should not fully reflect this. The calendar effect, linked to Easter, should result in an increase in spending of 0.6% over one year in April, after a drop of 1.3% in March.
On a European scale, inflation should climb from 7.5% to 7.8% over one year, including 3.6% in core (excluding food and energy), and an imminent decline does not seem to be on the agenda. What accentuate the pressure on the shoulders of the European Central Bank (ECB). Its president Christine Lagarde does not rule out an exit from the era of negative rates by the end of the third quarter in order to contain galloping inflation. The first rate hike should be decided in July. Also on the European agenda: the evolution of number of German unemployed in May and the final figure for French GDP in the first quarter (consensus: 0%).
Across the Atlantic, operators will be sensitive to house prices in march, as measured by CaseShiller and the FHFA Index. The rise in interest rates is not neutral on the sector, but, with a reduced supply due to shortages and low inventories of houses, the price correction is not for now. Household morale should also suffer from the decisions of the US central bank and inflation. L’Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is expected to fall to 103.8 in May from 107.3 in April. Finally, theChicago PMI should come out at 55.1 in May, after 56.4 in April.
On the values front, it will be calmer. Exel Industries and Pierre & Holidays will publish their first-half results, while Voltz Seeds will report on its turnover for the same period and Wavestone on its 2021-2022 accounts.
PC