For President Xi Jinping, the events in Ukraine will not have a major impact on China’s great historic rise. Bearing in mind Russia’s military difficulties, he will be better prepared when it comes to Taiwan.
In the wake of Russia’s February 24 invasion of Ukraine, two perspectives quickly emerged in the West about what China would learn from the war. The first view suggested that NATO’s failure to deter Russia — or to defend Ukraine outright — would inspire China to advance the timetable for a planned invasion of Taiwan, or even use the chaos of the war to attack the island in the near future. But after Russia’s military campaign encountered significant and unexpected difficulties early on, an alternative assessment of the situation emerged. This suggested that the war in Ukraine would greatly deter China from ever attempting to capture Taiwan.