We take the same ones and we start again… Very hesitant, the Paris Stock Exchange narrowly avoided a new session of decline, saved by the progression of Wall Street. The Cac 40 ends with a symbolic gain of 0.02%, at 6,105.92 points, in a still narrow trading volume of 2.72 billion euros. Across the Atlantic, the indices are gaining ground, the Dow Jones taking 0.79% and the Nasdaq Composite 1%, after having aligned seven consecutive withdrawal sessions, which had not happened since the end of 2016.
Once again, the session took place under the influence of the energy crisis in Europe – Vladimir Putin is again threatening to cut the floodgates -, questions about global growth – oil is sinking below 90 dollars – and questions about the action of central banks to curb inflation. In less than 24 hours, operators will be fixed on the fate reserved by the European Central Bank (ECB) for the euro zone. It will make its decision on interest rates at 2:15 p.m., then its president, Christine Lagarde, will speak from 2:45 p.m. It will have to avoid any faux pas, at the risk of causing the financial markets to skid. With inflation at a historic high of 9.1% year on year in August, and after an initial rise in July, investors are expecting a significant 75 basis point hike in the refinancing rate, currently at 0.5 %. ” The real surprise would be if the ECB does not proceed with the three-quarter point hike in its rates on Thursday “says Véronique Riches-Flores, economist and founder of RF Research. The ECB, whose original mandate is to maintain price stability, is far from having fulfilled its mission so far and finds itself behind in its monetary cycle, in particular compared to the American Federal Reserve.
The Fed will be in charge on September 21. The acceleration of activity in the US services sector in August showed that the world’s largest economy is robust enough to withstand a 75 basis point hike in Fed funds rates. This probability is estimated at 82% according to CME Group calculations based on Fed funds futures contracts, compared to 69% a week ago. In order to refine their analysis, investors will look tonight at the Fed’s Beige Book. This document provides an update on the evolution of business activity in the 12 districts of the Fed. It will serve as a working basis for the next meeting of the institution. In Canada, the central bank has just taken the plunge: it raised its key rate by 75 basis points to bring it to a 14-year high. She indicated that the cost of credit would have to rise further to stem the rise in prices.
A final element slowed down the stock market trend: the disappointing figures for Chinese foreign trade in August, which revived questions about growth in the country. Exports were weak: +7.1% over one year, expressed in dollars, against an increase of 18% in July and 12.5% expected by the consensus. Imports, they only increased by 0.3%, against 2.3% in July and 1.5% expected by the market. A sign that does not mislead and clearly reflects the impact of health restriction measures on activity: oil imports have fallen by 4.7% since the start of the year and those of coal by 14.9%.
Big kid for Ubisoft
On the values front, Ubisoft collapsed 17.24%, last in the SRD. The announcement of the rise of the Chinese Tencent to 9.99% of the capital of the video game publisher and 49.9% of the shares of the holding company, Guillemot Brothers Limited, makes the file lose its speculative aspect even if it is a very nice operation for the Guillemot family.
Within the CAC 40, TotalEnergies dropped 3.7%. Conversely, Conversely, Engie took the lead in the index, with a gain of 4.93%, following the European Commission’s proposal to cap prices at 200 euros per megawatt hour for electricity produced outside gas-fired power stations. In Rotterdam, European gas futures contracts fell 7% to 223 euros per megawatt hour after falling 2.5% on Tuesday. At the European level, the Stoxx 600 of “utilities” rose by 2.6%, thus signing the best sector performance.
Finally, Saffron gained 1.48% thanks to a note from Goldman Sachs, which included the engine manufacturer in its “conviction list” of European stocks and raised its target price from 134 euros to 150 euros.