In the coming vote, both government proposals threaten to fail. According to the SRG trend survey, the opponents are ahead of the game both with the new media law and the abolition of the emissions tax.
Federal Councilor Simonetta Sommaruga’s support for the media package is dwindling.
Ten days before the vote, things are not looking good for Federal Councilor Simonetta Sommaruga. Only 46 percent are in favor of their package of measures in favor of the media. With 5 percent undecided, 49 percent rejected the submission. This is the result of the second SRG trend survey conducted by the GfS Bern institute at the end of January. The formation of opinion is thus in the direction of no. In the first survey, which took place at the end of December, opponents and supporters were balanced at 48 percent each.
The pollsters register a sharp left-right polarization in the formation of opinion: There are clear majorities for the media package in the camp of the Greens and the SP, supporters of the FDP and SVP, on the other hand, clearly reject it. There is disagreement in the ranks of GLP and the center – however, according to the survey, support is crumbling.
The negative trend is even clearer when it comes to the abolition of stamp duty on equity, for which Finance Minister Ueli Maurer is campaigning. There the opponents were even able to consolidate their slight starting advantage. At the end of December last year, 49 percent of those questioned still rejected the bill. Now their share has risen to 53 percent. 39 percent were in favor of abolishing the emissions tax. However, only 59 percent of those surveyed expressed a firm intention to vote, while a comparatively high 8 percent are still undecided.
The abolition of the emissions tax continues to meet with high approval in the FDP and SVP environment. In the red-green camp, however, the clear rejection has continued to solidify. Meanwhile, in recent weeks, voters in the Mitte party have tipped into the anti-abolitionist camp. In the debate about the economic proposal, the argument that large corporations and financial companies, which primarily pay the stamp duty, do not need any relief, is particularly convincing. All the more so because the population pays VAT on every purchase. The pollsters therefore consider a rejection of the bill to be likely.
The popular initiative “Yes to the ban on animal and human testing” hardly has a better chance. 68 percent of those surveyed are critical of the referendum. Just over a quarter are in favor of it. Within a month, the Yes camp has lost 19 percentage points. 6 percent of those surveyed are still undecided. It is not to be expected that the opinion will change. The very critical assessment of the content, the unified position of the political elite and the less visible position of the initiators meant that a clear rejection was to be expected, according to the pollsters.
The initiative to protect children and young people from tobacco advertising is the only one of the four voting proposals that can expect to be successful at the ballot box. The no camp has increased by 10 percentage points to 35 percent. But with 63 percent, the supporters are still clearly in the lead. Especially since only a few (two percent) are undecided.
However, according to the pollsters, there is still some scope for a change, since the formation of opinions has not progressed too far. If the trend towards no continues in the middle, according to GfS Bern, some conservative regions could still tip over to the no camp. So it cannot be ruled out that the initiative will fail despite the clear majority ratio due to the number of estates.