The ongoing U.S. presidential campaign has highlighted the Democratic Party’s support for Israel amid conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, leading to dissent among some American voters, especially Arab-Americans. Disillusioned by President Biden’s policies, this demographic might abstain from voting or support Donald Trump, potentially impacting close elections. Historically aligned with Democrats post-Trump’s administration, their current sentiments show a split, with a significant portion considering the Green Party candidate over Harris. Their votes are crucial in key swing states like Michigan.
Since the onset of the U.S. presidential campaign, the situation in the Middle East has loomed large for the Democratic Party. As Joe Biden’s administration continues to strongly support Israel in its conflicts in Gaza and now Lebanon, a segment of the American populace, particularly many Arab Americans, has sought to voice their dissent. If their concerns are ignored, they may retaliate against Kamala Harris’s party at the polls, either by abstaining or voting for Donald Trump. These votes could be pivotal in a race that is expected to be very tight.
Potential Shift in the Electorate?
Muslims and Arab Americans were traditionally seen as a reliable voting bloc for the Democrats following Donald Trump’s presidency, which implemented notably discriminatory policies against these communities. In 2017, shortly after taking office, Trump signed an executive order banning entry to the United States for 90 days for citizens from seven Muslim-majority countries (Iraq, Syria, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen).
However, a portion of this community, particularly those with ties to Lebanon according to the Arab American Institute, has criticized Joe Biden for his lack of response regarding Israel’s actions in its conflicts. A significant pro-Palestinian movement called Uncommitted has been vocally critical of the Democrats and has refrained from endorsing Kamala Harris while clearly opposing Donald Trump.
An August survey of Muslim voters revealed that 29.4% intended to cast their ballots for Kamala Harris, a figure almost on par with those intending to vote for Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who has consistently voiced her support for a ceasefire and Palestine throughout her campaign. The research also showed that 42% of Arab Americans plan to vote for the vice president—higher than those indicating support for Donald Trump but significantly lower than Biden’s numbers in 2020.
We are just a few thousand votes, so it could matter
We are just a few thousand votes, so it could matter
Elizabeth Sheppard Sellam
In the United States, Arab Americans number about 3.5 million according to the Council on American-Islamic Relations, the largest Muslim advocacy organization in the country, representing just under 1% of the American population. Despite their relatively small size, their voting power could be significant, especially in Michigan, one of the key swing states.
‘Generally, this is not a group we worry about the most. But in such a closely contested election, their voices might count in Michigan, particularly in districts where Arab American or Muslim votes matter’, notes Elizabeth Sheppard Sellam, a lecturer at the University of Tours. ‘We are just a few thousand votes, so it can make a difference.’
Recognizing this dynamic, both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are actively campaigning in the state to sway undecided voters. During a rally on October 26, the Republican candidate enlisted local Muslim organization leaders to address attendees.
‘As Muslims, we support President Trump because he promises peace, not war’, one said, a statement that raised eyebrows. ‘If there is a president who has demonstrated anti-Arab sentiment, it is Trump,’ Elizabeth Sheppard Sellam admits. ‘The only thing he offers this community is his conservatism. He appeals to a very conservative faction on issues related to the LGBT+ community and abortion.’
On October 28, Kamala Harris was again campaigning in Michigan, where she faced interruptions from pro-Palestinian activists. As they were escorted out of the event, she promised to do ‘everything in my power to’ end the war in Gaza—a wish tempered by the ongoing bombardments that have persisted for over a year.