Pbased on the double observation that in the past there has never been a replacement of one energy source by another; and that energy transformations have always taken place in an additive manner (energies adding to each other), certain historians deduce, wrongly in our opinion, that there would be no horizon for an exit from fossils. This release of fossils (the “transitioning away from fossil fuels”, in the language coined at COP28) would therefore be condemned in advance.
This is the recurring message from Jean-Baptiste Fressoz [chroniqueur au Monde] notably, in his works or forums, which all aim to refute what he considers to be “the false promise of transition”.
However, this ecological declinism is not only largely unfounded, but also likely to undermine ambitions in the fight against climate change. Asserting that the transition is impossible is the best way to never initiate it. Against this defeatism, we want to assert here, forcefully, that it is possible to succeed in this transition.
Certainly, with the exception of years of crisis – financial in 2008-2009, health in 2020-2021 – CO emissions2 have never stopped increasing, although at a slower pace, of around +1% annually during the 2010s, compared to +3% annually in the 2000s. Because, at the same time, the world population continued to increase, as will the satisfaction of the energy needs of a growing part of this population.
However, the de-stacking of energies is already taking place in certain regions of the world: this is the case in Europe, for example, which has initiated its energy transition. At the same time, more and more actors – States, businesses, researchers, citizens – are now integrating the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions into their strategies and behaviors. The ambition is not yet asserted enough, the implementation of transformations is not fast and efficient enough, but the movement is underway. How to ignore it?
Sobriety, efficiency and investments
On January 11, Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), indicated that the capacities installed during the year in renewable energies had increased by 50% between 2022 and 2023. For the share of renewables in the electricity production, the IEA expects the increase from 29% to 42% in 2028 (from 12% to 25% for wind and solar energy alone). Since 1975, the price of photovoltaic panels has fallen from $100 per watt to less than $0.5 per watt today, representing a 20% reduction in cost for each doubling of installed capacity; it is the measure of the learning rate of technology. And while the question of electricity storage becomes more and more crucial, we see the same rate of learning for batteries: since 1992, each time the number of batteries produced doubles, their cost decreases by 18%.
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