Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict: Recent Developments

What sparked the recent fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia?

According to the Armenian Defense Ministry, Azerbaijani troops in three cities have attacked Armenian positions near the border with artillery and large-caliber weapons. From the Azerbaijani capital Baku it was said that a large-scale attempt at sabotage by Armenians had triggered the fighting. Baku confirmed the attacks, but explained that they were “small-scale attacks” aimed at “ensuring the security of Azerbaijan’s borders.”

According to Azerbaijani media, the two countries had agreed on a ceasefire early Monday, but it only lasted a few minutes.

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region has flared up again and again for decades. However, the conflict has recently taken on a new dimension, as this time, according to information from Yerevan, positions inside Armenia have been attacked. The attacks occurred in the three Armenian border towns of Goris, Sotk and Jermuk. The Armenian side reported the loss of 49 soldiers after the attacks. Azerbaijan also said it had suffered casualties, but did not provide numbers.

The reasons for the current developments in the conflict between the two countries could be related to the Ukraine war. Azerbaijan has gained geopolitical importance as an alternative energy supplier. In addition, Armenia’s only ally, Russia, is currently weakened. Baku could see momentum in this context to further strengthen its position against Armenia.

Who is standing by whom, and how is the international community reacting to the recent escalation?

Armenia’s Prime Minister Pashinyan called Kremlin chief Putin immediately after the attacks – Russia is Armenia’s protecting power. Moscow maintains a large military base in Armenia. Since the November 2020 ceasefire, Russia has increased its presence. Russian peacekeeping forces are stationed on Azerbaijani territory under international law, on the remaining territory of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, which has not been recognized by anyone, and guarantee security in the Lachin Corridor, which connects the main town of Stepanakert with Armenia.

Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (ODKB), a Russian-led military coalition of former Soviet republics. In the event of an attack, Armenia could count on the support of allies. However, this does not apply to an attack on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. According to Yerevan, Armenia has officially called the ODKB for help.

Turkey, allied with Azerbaijan, accused Armenia of “provocations” in the border area. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said he had urged Armenia to focus on peace negotiations.

EU Council President Charles Michel has called for a diplomatic solution to the conflict. “There is no alternative to peace and stability – and there is no alternative to diplomacy to ensure it.” Michel called the reports of fighting extremely concerning. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell announced that Michel was in contact with the heads of state and government of the two countries. He also called for a return to the negotiating table. The EU is determined to mediate further. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has also offered to mediate.

The US is “deeply concerned” about the situation there: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called on both sides to immediately end all armed hostilities along the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. There could be no military solution to the conflict, said Blinken.

What happened in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh armed conflict?

In recent years there have been several military clashes between the armed forces of Armenia and the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh (self-designated Artsakh) on the one hand and Azerbaijan on the other. In July 2020 skirmishes broke out on a section of the border that had nothing directly to do with the Karabakh conflict. On September 27, Azerbaijan launched an offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh. This started the second war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region. Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia declared a state of emergency and general mobilization. In the course of its ground offensive, Azerbaijan took control of parts of the Republic of Artsakh, particularly areas in the south that Armenia had seized in 1993 as a security buffer.

On November 8, 2020, Azerbaijan captured the strategically important city of Shusha (Armenian: Shushi). On November 9, the warring parties signed a declaration aiming to end hostilities on November 10. Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and the “President” of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, Araik Arutjunyan, said the situation had not allowed for anything else. This officially ended the war, although there were isolated armed conflicts until mid-December.

Armenia and Azerbaijan committed in a ten-point plan negotiated by Russia, freeze their current positions. Armenia was to withdraw in several stages from the held areas around the core area of ​​Nagorno-Karabakh and hand them over to Azerbaijan. Russian troops took control of the armistice agreement. The declaration sealed the defeat of Armenia, which subsequently had to make wide concessions to Azerbaijan and Turkey.

What did the November 2020 agreement bring?

The ceasefire of November 2020 has not yet brought full stability or security to the region. Progress has been made (Baku and Yerevan agreed to form a demarcation commission at the end of 2021, set up a hotline between their defense ministers and started talking directly to each other again). But even after the fighting ended, there were repeated reports of skirmishes in the border area.

Azerbaijan uses according to one Carnegie Foundation report albeit a modified version of the intimidation model used by Moscow in the run-up to the war of aggression against Ukraine. Thus it built up military forces along the border, and there were occasional military attempts to advance deeper into Armenian-held territory. The ceasefire was violated not only around Nagorno-Karabakh, but also on the not yet officially defined border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In November 2021, six Armenian and seven Azerbaijani soldiers were killed in clashes. In March 2022, Azerbaijan cut off gas supplies to Armenian population centers in Karabakh to increase pressure.

In the first week of September 2022, Armenia accused Azerbaijan of killing a soldier in an attack on the border. In August, Baku reported the loss of a soldier.

What is the historical background of the conflict between Armenians and Azerbaijanis?

The ethnic conflicts between Christian Armenians and Muslim Azerbaijanis go back a long way. Until the middle of the 19th century the Armenians were in the minority in the South Caucasus, between 1846 and 1915 their number increased eightfold. This increased tensions between the two ethnic groups. In 1905/06 and 1918/19 there were massacres in Baku and in Armenian and Azerbaijani villages in Nagorno-Karabakh, killing tens of thousands of Armenians and Azerbaijanis.

With the founding of the Soviet Union, the motto was friendship among peoples. The Soviet dictator Josef Stalin granted the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh a certain degree of autonomy, but the arbitrary demarcation of borders was also a means of weakening national movements. In the final stages of the Soviet Union, Moscow’s control eased. The Armenian was one of the first national movements to gain traction. In 1987 the Karabakh Committee was formed, which demanded that Secretary General Mikhail Gorbachev transfer Karabakh to Armenia.

In February 1988 there were massacres of Armenians in the Azerbaijani city of Sumgait, in Stepanakert thousands of Armenians demonstrated for Karabakh to be annexed to Armenia. After the end of the Soviet Union, an open war broke out that lasted from 1992 to 1994. The number of dead is estimated at 25,000 to 50,000. More than a million people have been displaced: Azerbaijanis have fled Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh and neighboring areas; Armenians had to leave Azerbaijan.

Nagorno-Karabakh officially calls itself the Republic of Artsakh and was de facto independent from 1994. Armenia took on the role of security guarantor. With the defeat in the second Karabakh war in autumn 2020, it effectively lost it to Russia. However, statehood is not recognized by any UN member – not even by Armenia. Under international law, the entire area still belongs to Azerbaijan.

Cooperation: Patrick Zoll, Markus Ackeret; with agency material