Artificial intelligence (AI) should have a positive impact on employment, but we must prepare for the disappearance of certain professions and anticipate the transformation of all others: these are the conclusions of the Artificial Intelligence Commission on the future of the labor market, in his report submitted to the president, Emmanuel Macron, Wednesday March 13.
To draw up this generally reassuring observation, the experts rely in particular on a study carried out using data from INSEE. It concludes that the total number of jobs in the companies observed increases faster in the 321 that adopted AI systems between 2018 and 2020 than in the 897 others that have not implemented anything in this area. The choice of these technological solutions has in fact made it possible to develop new professions, the existence of which was not envisaged in the company before 2018.
Furthermore, for certain functions, the impact on productivity is such that it far exceeds potential “crowding out effect”, or the elimination of certain positions. This is also what shows a study by the American National Bureau of Economic Research, which studied the provision of an AI tool helping a company’s customer service employees respond to requests, through a chat offering automatic responses: employees with access to it saw their productivity increase by 25%.
Social issues
“Jobs directly replaceable by AI would only represent 5% of jobs in a country like France”, establishes the report. However, not all scientific literature shares the same optimism: according to an analysis carried out in January by HEC professor Antonin Bergeaud, automation concerns around 20% of workers. The professions of secretaries, accountants and telemarketers, which are both highly exposed to AI and which involve few complex tasks, are the most threatened.
Without being replaced, the work of a majority of employees will, despite everything, be affected. According to studies, a variable proportion of jobs are partially affected by automation. Faced with these divergent results, the committee recommends investing more in research into the consequences of AI on employment. In the absence of perspective, the specific effects of generative AI, democratized at the end of 2022, are almost unknown.
To respond to the” planned obsolescence “ of certain skills, training is made a major issue by the commission. Experts recommend investing 200 million euros over five years to strengthen the offer and methods of professional training, through awareness tools, particularly for job seekers.
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