Chancellor Scholz has always based his Ukraine policy on the USA. This doesn’t work anymore. With his visit to Washington he wants to support President Biden and at the same time get support.
There has been a bit of silence surrounding the three principles with which Chancellor Olaf Scholz always bases his Ukraine policy. Just over a year ago, journalists were able to have their say at the federal press conference when government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit listed them. “The three principles apply,” he said, for example. “The massive, strong support for Ukraine; secondly, that NATO must not become its own warring party; and thirdly, that there must be close international coordination, not a national solo effort.”
No national solo effort, that was supposed to mean at the time: Germany wouldn’t supply battle tanks if the USA didn’t do the same. After exactly that happened at the end of January 2023, the three principles were cited less often, but by no means abandoned – not even the third, “that we do all of this in close coordination and consultation with our international partners, above all the United States of America.” Hebestreit said again a month ago. It was no longer about Leopard tanks, but about Taurus cruise missiles, but still about warding off the assumption that German support for Ukraine actually follows a completely different principle: that of hesitation.
Scholz never wanted to be seen as hesitant when it came to supporting Ukraine. The close alignment with the USA was an increasingly better argument for this: US President Joe Biden officially followed a “boiling the frog” strategy, which relied on a slow ramp-up of arms deliveries in order to deter Putin from nuclear escalation. In effect, Biden denied Ukraine the weapons that would have been necessary to achieve major offensive successes.
What happens if Trump wins?
The USA is now no longer delivering anything to Ukraine because the Republicans in Congress are blocking the necessary resolutions under pressure from former President Donald Trump. For Scholz, this raises the question of whether it still makes sense to follow the approach of the United States.
It is not the only question that accompanies the Chancellor when he flies to the USA on a working visit this Thursday, and certainly not the most important one. What happens if Trump wins the election in November? Can Europe manage to ensure Ukraine’s survival even without the USA? And do American security guarantees still apply to Europe?
All of these issues will be elephants in the room when Biden welcomes Scholz to the White House on Friday afternoon. However, there is unlikely to be an in-depth discussion about the risks and side effects of a second Trump term because politicians have a chronic aversion to hypothetical questions. In an interview with “Zeit” in January, Scholz did not want to answer the question of whether the EU should have its own nuclear weapons. The meeting in the Oval Office will focus on specific topics: the war between Israel and Hamas, the Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea, and NATO’s anniversary summit in Washington, which is scheduled for the summer. And, above all, Ukraine. The current discussions in the US Congress about financing support for Ukraine is “a topic that we are following particularly closely,” the federal government said ahead of Scholz’s trip.
“Olaf is one of the leaders in Europe”
So what happens next for Ukraine given the Republican blockade and limited European capabilities? Concrete results are not to be expected, too much is still unclear. What is certain is that it is high time for Europeans to prepare for the worst: the return of Donald Trump to the White House in January 2025.
The Trump scenario is one of the reasons why Scholz is suddenly showing something like leadership in Europe. He is currently talking a lot on the phone to his European colleagues “and asking them to do more,” Scholz told “Zeit” about support for Ukraine. This role is also recognized by the Ukrainian president: “Olaf felt that he was not just Chancellor, but one of the leaders in today’s Europe,” Volodymyr Zelenskyj recently told ARD.
When Scholz now emphasizes that Germany is Ukraine’s second largest supporter after the USA, the message behind it is no longer: We are doing enough. The message is: other Europeans must provide more help. After the EU summit last week, Scholz said this very explicitly: “Are all member states doing enough when it comes to arms aid? My personal assessment is: That is not the case.” The member states of the European Union must “come to strengthen bilateral defense support for Ukraine relatively early this year.” Scholz ignores the fact that Germany after the Ukraine Support Tracker from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy is only in 13th place among the supporting countries when aid is measured by gross domestic product. But the USA is even further behind in this ranking.
Two goals
Scholz’s visit to the USA has two main goals. First: to provide Biden with arguments against those Republicans who still claim that Europe is not doing enough to protect its own security. Scholz therefore also wants to meet senators and congressmen for dinner in Washington – including representatives of the Republicans. In any case, the federal government has been increasingly focusing on establishing contacts with Republicans for some time in order to have functioning communication channels below the White House in the event of an emergency. Of course, people in Berlin know that German influence in Washington is limited. At the same time, the Chancellery says that Scholz will make it clear to the American audience that the Europeans are doing their part.
Secondly, the Chancellor is likely to hope for support from Biden for his appeals to other Europeans. “I strongly advocate that the USA and Europe as well as all member states in Europe make such a large contribution that the Russian President’s calculation of sitting out the matter does not work,” said Scholz on Monday during the inaugural visit of the new French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal .
The “close international coordination” of support for Ukraine has long been a code for hiding a little behind the USA. It’s over. Scholz became the “leader in Europe” primarily because of the failure of the USA. He still wants to avoid going it alone nationally. Now, however, no longer by following the USA, but by urging the other European states to take on more responsibility.