The words are strong: the assault on the Capitol was the “culmination of a coup attempt”: a year and a half after January 6, 2021, a parliamentary commission of inquiry evoked a “plot”, aiming to keep Donald Trump in power.
Broadcast live by several American television stations, the hearings fascinate and shed more light on the facts of this dramatic day, punctuated by several deaths, and during which American democracy had wavered.
Lecturer at the University of Paris Panthéon-Assas, researcher in international relations, Jean-Eric Branaa is a specialist in the constitution and American law. He is answering our questions.
What are the stakes of these parliamentary hearings?
Until Thursday evening, there was above all an educational challenge: to show that there had been an attack on democracy and a rise of the far right. Since then, we have discovered the involvement of Donad Trump, then president. The commission shows that he twice violated the constitution, which provides that no one can remain in power against the will of the people and that no one can lead a riot in the United States. It is his personal responsibility which is engaged, he is at the center of a conspiracy.
It is a surprise ?
It was only the amuse-bouche, but it attacked very hard: we thought that Thursday there would only be an introductory presentation of the facts, but we immediately tackled the heart of the matter. Which means more serious things will happen next. We know that the Secretary of State of Georgia, Brad Raffensperger, whom Trump had asked to “find” 11,000 votes, will testify. We are heading straight for a criminal charge against Trump, with a request for prosecution before a grand jury.
Can the commission interview Donald Trump?
It will not arrive. The commission understood that this would make him a martyr, that there would be another riot. His role is to provide evidence and seize the Ministry of Justice, the only authority to prosecute him.
How does Donald Trump react?
He takes it very seriously: he first left Mar-a-Lago for New Jersey on Thursday, to be closer to the auditions. He also multiplies the statements to explain, as always, that the witnesses are all liars, that the evidence is doctored. In the witnesses, however, there is his own daughter and son-in-law…
In short, accused of conspiracy, he denounces a conspiracy?
Yes, as he always does. He is helped in this by the staff of the Republican Party, which still does not let go. But we still feel that there is panic on board: the party no longer knows how to counter these revelations … Donald Trump’s own daughter [Ivanka, ndlr] said she refuted the idea of voter fraud from the outset, as told to her by Trump’s campaign staff. There was only a small conspiratorial group around him who made him believe otherwise, some of whom say they didn’t want to leave Trump for fear that he would completely go under and his coup would succeed…
With what consequence on the political future of Donald Trump?
Trump never said “I’ll be there”, but “we can win” in 2024. I don’t believe in his return, I think it’s over for him. The party cannot let go of him as long as voters support him, before the midterm elections in November. He still has a strong base, but we are no longer in the Trump madness. Especially since we’re going to spend a month talking about an attempted coup d’etat! Even if the Republicans continue to talk about witch hunts, it will have an impact on the center. With many states that can switch to the Democratic side, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Texas, Arizona, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina… From then on, there would be no more passage for Trump or the Republicans.
So why is the party not letting go?
For the candidates, there was a risk of being doomed in the very short term by letting go of Trump, like Liz Cheney who is in the inquiry committee today, but lost the primary in Wyoming. It will bounce back another way, but other elected officials could not afford such a risk. There are states where you can’t help it, in very conservative counties, with evangelicals… But that’s the tail of the comet. This is not a position that can allow Trump to bounce back. It no longer has the dynamic of 2015-2016. He maintained the illusion by making a lot of noise. We see today that what dominates is a great silence on Trump. Even its meetings do not bring together more than 3,000 people, against 30,000 a year and a half ago.
Within the commission, the elected Bennie Thompson believes that “the plot to counter the will of the people is not over”…
He is political! I do not share his opinion. It’s over, there is no more conspiracy. Trump always surfs on the big lie, the “big lie”, because he has more than that to offer. The Republicans are not letting go because some of their constituents demand it, but they are not at all in a secret organization with balaclavas to overthrow power and the constitution. On the contrary, I believe that American democracy emerges strengthened from this affair: it has proven its resistance. Republicans had all the power – both houses, the presidency, the Supreme Court, governors, etc. And it didn’t give up. A potential dictator in the United States cannot impose himself. The American constitution has once again proven itself and resisted Trump’s assaults. Simple, short, it provides for a very intelligent separation and organization of powers and checks and balances. With a balanced distribution and locks at all levels. The American constitution does not give that much power to the President of the United States, even if he is a very powerful man.