Discovered on January 6, theasteroid
2022/AE1 suggested that its trajectory would cross that of the Earth, with an impact in July 2023. Moon
was in line of sight, it took another week to confirm its trajectory, which proved to pose no risk.
Procedures for coordinating observatories are well in place.
No it is not Don’t Look Up
On November 10, a then unknown asteroid passed its closest point to the Sun. Then it approached the Earth, remaining at a wide distance of 10 million kilometers… but as it was “on the Sun side”, the telescopes dedicated to the observations and discoveries of asteroids only captured it on January 6. Not being in any catalog, it was immediately classified “2022/AE1”.
Still, this one was a bit special: preliminary calculations indicated that it was likely to hit the Earth on July 4, 2023. Will we see the impact of an asteroid about 70 meters in diameter for theIndependance Day American? After three days of observation, the probability remained low, around 1/2,900. But the observations of the following days reinforced this probability to 1/1,500.
Once from time to time…
” I was surprised at first when I learned that an asteroid was rated 1.5 on the Palermo scale, it’s very rare! But we get notifications (of a lower level) all year round, so I wasn’t worried “, explains Luca Converti, head of the NEOCC (Near Earh Objects Coordination Center) of the European agency.
This type of discovery leads to the activation of many observatories around the world, in order to reduce trajectory uncertainties and refine probabilities. As the asteroid moves across the sky, its current and future course can be determined with increasing confidence. It is normal that in the first days, some measures are contrary to the following observations. It depends on the telescopes, measurements of distance and estimated speed, the size of the asteroid…
No question of working alone with a marker around a whiteboard (Don’t Look Up
is not a universal reference), but to use a network of telescopes! ” It makes this detective work much easier, we can access it in real time on every continent. It is even a unique capability of ESA: there is always an observatory which is well oriented on the night side, to be able to make follow-up measurements “. Except this time… And yes, it’s the astronomical tile: the trajectory of the asteroid led it for several days (a big week) to be hidden behind the Moon.
Push the Moon please
The reason you haven’t heard of 2022/AE1 before today is very simple. The first readings presented a margin of uncertainty too high to really worry. And as soon as the Moon unveiled the asteroid, new trajectory measurements were able to confirm that in reality there would be no probability of impact (1/100,000). So no risk there. European and world telescopes have already moved on to other observations and trajectories, as they do all year round. But it’s always a good thing to remember how it all works!
The second reason why you haven’t heard of 2022/AE1 is also very simple: the ESA published its press release on this discovery on February 24… And everyone was looking elsewhere.
Source: ESA
14