Do we have a contingency plan?
At least 9 million people are at risk from heat
© blickwinkel / McPHOTO / A. Schauhuber / imago images
Temperatures over 40 degrees, forest fires, water shortages: Europe is hot. The wave will also hit parts of Germany. But are we even prepared for these high temperatures?
Last year there was a major flood disaster in the Ahr Valley, forest fires are on the increase, and some municipalities want to limit drinking water – climate change is also becoming more and more visible in Germany. The heat is one of the most underestimated climatic changes. It creeps up and leads to enormous problems – in the health of individuals, the health system as a whole, agriculture and nature, to name just a few.
The mean annual air temperature continues to rise
“Climate models predict that the increase in mean annual air temperature will lead to warmer or hotter summers with a larger number of hot days and tropical nights in the future,” says the Federal Environment Agency website. Hot days are defined by temperatures above 30 degrees, on a tropical night the temperature does not fall below 20 degrees.
Heat waves are still being increasingly underestimated, especially in Germany, because there have only been a few of them in the past. For example, Spanish and Italian society have long been geared towards resting at midday, when it is stiflingly hot, and only working at off-peak times. This is pure self-protection, because the hot temperatures put a special strain on the human organism and often lead to cardiovascular problems. The body’s own cooling system can be overloaded in high heat, heat stroke follows. Typical symptoms are headaches, exhaustion and drowsiness.
The hospitals could be busy due to the heat
Older people or people with previous illnesses are particularly at risk. In view of the impending heat wave, the German Hospital Society is already warning of a very high burden on the clinics. In addition to dehydrated patients, the CEO Gerald Gaß is also expecting people who suffer from cardiac arrhythmias, low blood pressure or sleep disorders. Gastrointestinal infections could also be exacerbated by the heat. The number of patients who have to be treated as inpatients due to heat-related complaints is enormous and has in some cases doubled over the past few years.
The forecasts for the threatening heat wave from this weekend have been fluctuating for a few days. The German Weather Service (DWD) is currently expecting a dry and hot weekend with a subsequent heat wave in the coming week. Temperatures are expected to rise to 38 degrees. Where exactly the hot peak temperatures are expected is still unclear, but it will be hot everywhere.
France takes care of those in need of protection in the heat
In France, the heat has been the dominant topic for weeks. There, older and weakened people in particular are cared for by social workers on hot days. They call daily, set up fans in the apartments and give them liquids. Over 65s living alone, people with disabilities and those unable to work can register in their city. As soon as the “heat wave” alert level applies, the social service inquires about their well-being. Municipalities in France have been obliged to keep such a register for those in need of protection for 20 years – after a deadly heat wave claimed the lives of at least 20,000 people. Many died alone and were only found late.
9 million people are considered at risk from heat
In Germany, the life-threatening heat is currently no reason to protect people who may no longer be able to protect themselves. “Die Zeit” has researched together with the “Correctiv” that the number of people whose health is potentially at risk from persistently high temperatures is around nine million – probably even more. The Federal Ministry of Health informed them that there were no reliable statistics or surveys.
In the hot summers of 2003, 2006 and 2015, a total of around 19,500 additional people died as a result of heat stress, according to the Federal Environment Agency. In the years 2018 and 2020, there were a total of 19,300 deaths from heat, just as many cases as before in three years. Health Minister Karl Lauterbach wrote on Twitter that “elderly and sick people need to be protected from the mega heat wave” and warned of the fatalities, but “uniform federal requirements” are not planned. In Germany it is the task of the federal states and municipalities to create regionally adapted heat action plans develop.
Only every fifth district has a heat action plan
“Zeit Online” recently revealed that only one in five districts can present a concept for how particularly vulnerable people could be protected. The danger from the heat still doesn’t seem tangible in Germany. Many are happy about the hot days and spend them completely outside – many do not seem to be aware that they are seriously endangering their health. The Germans are not used to prolonged periods of heat, which means that protective measures such as drinking a lot, wearing light-colored clothing or staying in the shade are often not observed.
It is clear that a heat warning system in Germany does not work or does not exist, although temperatures above 30 degrees can be life-threatening for many. The climate is changing. Germany needs reliable early warning systems in all areas – including the heat – and plans on how to react in an emergency. A catastrophe like the one in the Ahr valley or in France 20 years ago should not be repeated.
Sources used: zeit.de, Umweltbundesamt.de