A week ago, supporters of Jair Bolsonaro stormed the presidential palace in Brasilia. Now the Brazilian ex-president is to be investigated. Geraldo Tadeu Moreira Monteiro, professor of legal sociology in Rio de Janeiro, assesses the marks that four years of the Bolsonaro government have left on the police.
SRF News: How do you rate the storm on Brasilia last Sunday?
Geraldo Tadeu Moreira Monteiro: It was an orchestrated mobilization of people from all over Brazil for a coup d’etat. The federal district police deliberately failed to act. It took two hours to get to the scene. So only after the government had ordered an intervention. Four years of the Bolsonaro government have left their mark. It is unthinkable that ABIN, the Brazilian secret service, the federal police and other intelligence services did not know.
What must President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva do now?
Lula must have a well-structured policy of democratizing the police force. He should first start a dialogue with the military and the police, which in turn will make it possible to “debolsonarize” these institutions.
What did Bolsonaro supporters achieve by storming Brasilia?
The aim was to storm the buildings and create a crisis that would lead to an intervention by the armed forces. That did not work. Moreover, the record for radical Bolsonaro supporters is largely negative, as events have unleashed an unprecedented wave of solidarity with democracy in Brazil, which all 27 governors have joined. A poll also shows that 93 percent of Brazilians condemn vandalism.
What is your biggest concern?
The most important thing is to identify those behind the attack on the democratic rule of law and to arrest these people. The message would then be: Democracy knows how to defend itself.
How do you see the future of Bolsonarism?
Recent events will isolate radical Bolsonaro supporters. Populist, authoritarian movements thrive when their leaders are in power. As ex-president, Bolsonaro will be less represented in the media. The governors elected with his support must have good relations with the government.
The hard core, the extreme right, will certainly continue to support Bolsonaro.
The more moderate exponents of Bolsonarianism will come together in a new, conservative pool. The hard core, the extreme right, makes up ten percent of the electorate in Brazil and will certainly continue to support Bolsonaro.
How is Lula’s coalition doing two weeks after taking office?
A week after taking office, the democratic state was put to the test. As a result, a great alliance formed around the figure of President Lula, and he clearly took the lead. That makes him look good. The armed forces did not embark on the adventure of military intervention. The governors, the most important institutions and also the business associations have issued statements supporting democracy.
If Lula’s government performs well, dissatisfaction will decrease.
This is political capital. It remains to be seen how Lula will use it. If his government does well in its first year, dissatisfaction will diminish and radical behavior will recede into the background.
Karen Naundorf conducted the interview.
Legend:
Police officers in front of a stormed courthouse in Brasilia.
REUTERS/Amanda Perobelli