Attack on nuclear early warning system
Expert: Ukraine deliberately crosses red lines
26.05.2024, 14:10
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On Thursday night, Ukraine attacked an important radar facility on Russian soil. It is not only in Russia that there is great outrage. But a US security expert suspects strategic calculation – and a message to the US government.
The US security expert Phillips O’Brien is convinced that Ukraine deliberately wanted to cross several military red lines with the attack on a nuclear missile early warning system in Russia – also to send a message to the West. The attack immediately triggered a flood of complaints that the attack was far too threatening for Russia and could provoke a nuclear strike. writes O’Brien in his newsletter. It is fascinating to see how many people are bending over backwards to represent the Russian point of view in the debate, adds the peace and conflict researcher. “But they obviously do not understand Ukraine’s point of view: Ukraine is convinced that there will be no nuclear strike.”
According to the information, Ukraine damaged a radar of the Russian early warning system against incoming nuclear missiles in the neighboring Russian region of Krasnodar on Thursday night. The Voronezh-DM early warning radar can reportedly detect attacking nuclear missiles at a distance of 6,000 kilometers. As part of the chain of such radar stations, it monitors the airspace over Crimea and southwestern Europe, extending far into the Atlantic.
Former Russian ambassador to NATO Dmitri Rogozin spoke of an attack on a “key element of the military control of strategic nuclear forces” that brought the world closer to the brink of nuclear war. Independent Norwegian military expert Thord Are Iversen expressed similar views: It is not a good idea to attack such objects in times of international tension, he explained. “There are tons of targets in Russia that can be attacked with drones. And there are a handful of targets that can be avoided, and this is one of them.”
Four lessons from the attack
US security expert O’Brien disagrees. He even goes so far as to say that Ukraine has achieved a lot with the attack:
- The attack proves that no Russian target on Russian soil is safe. If Russia wants to prevent such attacks, it must withdraw air defenses from the battlefield: “It amazes me how easy it seems for Ukraine to hit these high-military targets in Russia,” writes O’Brien. “Where is the Russian air defense?”
- The attack shows the US and other Western countries that it does not matter whether or not they allow attacks with their weapons systems on military targets in Russia. “The US government continues to assume that it can control and limit where and how Ukraine attacks Russia,” O’Brien writes. “The Ukrainians are saying clearly that this is not the case and that this attitude only makes the situation worse.”
- The attack is significant because the radar system also protects Crimea, which is a key target for the Ukrainians in the war: “They are slowly but surely transforming Crimea from a strategic advantage into a strategic burden for the Kremlin,” writes the conflict researcher. This is also indicated by the weeks-long attacks on the air force and naval bases on the peninsula.
- The lack of Russian reaction to the attack shows that Russia’s constant nuclear threats are empty threats. “Russia cannot afford to use a nuclear weapon against Ukraine, and Ukraine knows it,” O’Brien writes.
It is unclear whether Ukraine actually wanted to send a message to the US government with this attack. So far, US President Joe Biden has insisted that Ukraine is not allowed to use US weapons to hit Russian territory. But at least US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is said to have changed his mind: The New York Times reported during the week that he was advocating in the White House that missile and artillery positions directly across the border in Russia should also be fired at with US weapons.
Government officials involved in the talks claim that the new front in the war is the cause of the change of heart: Moscow’s forces have placed missile systems just across the border in northeastern Ukraine and aimed them at the major city of Kharkiv – “knowing full well that the Ukrainians are only able to use non-American drones and other weapons to respond.”