Hezbollah is headless, Iran is weaker than ever, but with know-how for the atomic bomb: you don’t even have to be a hawk in Israel to see an opportunity to strike hard against the mullahs. But it harbors great dangers.
The Middle East in the calm before the storm? Middle East expert Julien Barnes-Dacey calls the “most dangerous, devastating moment of this conflict” the days of waiting for a decision in Israel. The Iranian attack with 200 ballistic missiles in early October requires a response. Following Israel’s logic of deterrence, this response will be military.
“Iran made a big mistake tonight and will pay for it,” said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the day of the attack. But at the moment no one can say what level of violence, destructiveness and damage the Israeli counterattack will unleash. Maybe not even Netanyahu himself.
Barnes-Dacey sees a real risk that an “already widespread regional war could turn into a full-blown direct conflict between Israel and Iran.” What particularly worries the expert from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) is that nowhere in the developments of the last few weeks has he seen anything like a way out, an opportunity for de-escalation, for a ceasefire.
Instead, the bitter opponents Iran and Israel seem to be getting closer to escalation with almost every military step and every movement. Israel is currently taking most of these steps towards open war.
Israel is brimming with self-confidence
This is also why so many observers of developments in the Middle East are holding their breath these days: because Israel is now acting more and more martially and – to put it bluntly – is opening a new front in the region every month. The government in Jerusalem, the secret service, the military: after sophisticated precision strikes against heads of Hamas and Hezbollah, after 1,000 exploding pagers in the hands of Lebanese Hezbollah members, they seem to be brimming with self-confidence in Israel.
Barnes-Dacey observes growing ambitions in certain circles there to use this “opportunity” to reshape the entire region. Significantly weaken Iran’s influence in the Middle East, possibly even hitting the country itself militarily. But recent history shows, as the expert in the ECFR podcast says, “how hard and painfully such an illusion can be broken.”
Back in April, when Tehran and Jerusalem directly attacked each other for the first time this year, it was done in a measured manner and precisely calibrated by both sides. Iran attacked with drones and ballistic missiles, which were detected in time and then repelled with the support of the USA and some European partners. Israel responded a few days later by shelling an Iranian anti-aircraft position. After that it was quiet again.
USA urges restraint
The moderate Israeli response is attributed to strong influence from the White House. The Biden government has therefore clearly urged restraint. But Biden is much weaker today than he was in April and Netanyahu feels stronger. How well the USA will succeed in moderating Israel’s furor is an open question today.
But even if the Israelis have recently shown enormous intelligence skills and few scruples, a war-triggering attack on Iran would require military force that, in the opinion of many experts, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) could not muster on their own. Especially not if they also targeted the underground nuclear facilities.
If the Israeli army were to respond to Tehran’s rocket attack by reacting much more harshly than in April, but at the same time falling far short of an attack on Iran’s nuclear capabilities, then they could seriously hit the enemy with attacks on military positions. The launch pads from which the rockets flew into Israel in April could also be such a target.
Attacks on Iran’s power circles
Israel expert Hugh Lovatt sees strikes against critical infrastructure in Iran, especially in the energy sector, one step higher on the escalation ladder. The IDF could be even more confrontational if they carried out surgical attacks on Iran’s power circles. “After what we saw in Lebanon, with the targeted killing of Hassan Nasrallah, nothing is unthinkable,” Lovatt says on the ECFR podcast. “Nobody is safe.”
Nothing is unthinkable – does that especially apply to the Israeli government? The facilities in which the mullahs have their researchers enrich uranium are located very deep underground. If the IDF’s capabilities are seen by experts as too weak to destroy it, that does not mean that Netanyahu’s hawkish coalition sees it the same way. According to analyses, the fatal attack on Hezbollah leader Nasrallah was not coordinated with anyone. This seems as if there is currently little willingness in Netanyahu’s government to seek advice from partners, for example from Washington. At the same time, Netanyahu could speculate that if Israel were to take over militarily, the USA would ultimately intervene.
Iran’s reputation appears damaged
From the perspective of an Israeli hardliner, there are enough good reasons to dismantle the enemy’s underground nuclear facilities right now and very thoroughly. Because all the deterrence that Tehran had put in place so far has now been significantly weakened: Hezbollah, previously its most important and loyal ally, is vacillating headlessly around Lebanon. Iran’s reputation as a regional power is damaged. Not least through the targeted killing of Hamas leader Ismail Hanija in Tehran. The Israelis killed a “state guest” in Tehran, the center of Iranian power. Such a deep humiliation of the mullahs must first be achieved and they must also have the courage to do so.
After the attack, Arab neighbors and allies became aware that Tehran was not even avenging Hanija’s death. This cannot have seemed to the countries and militias from the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance” as if they were on the safe side with Iran as a partner. Observers also see a changed attitude in Iran itself since the Israelis’ last military strikes. Even moderate, de-escalating voices would now advocate a stronger response. To at least get close to a balance of deterrence with Israel again.
However, if the mullahs themselves become aware that they can hardly deter Israel at the moment, if they consider themselves to be too weak militarily, then the following reaction could be the consequence: Iran could rely on using the missing strength and deterrent power as quickly as possible to achieve nuclear capabilities.
How close is Iran to the atomic bomb?
How far these nuclear capabilities have now advanced is difficult to measure from the outside. The American Iran expert Behnam Ben Taleblu sees Iranian science now in a position to develop fissile material for a nuclear bomb within a minimum of four days to a maximum of two weeks. That would be the first step. The weapon would then have to be built with this material – step number 2.
“The assumptions as to how long Iran would then need to develop the weapon range from six to a maximum of 18 months,” says Taleblu in an interview with ntv.de. “The Americans and Israelis estimate this differently, based on known bomb designs. So a minimum of four days plus six months, a maximum of two weeks plus 18 months.” The necessary knowledge for the atomic bomb is therefore available in Iran. It just seems to be a political decision whether to start producing or not.
“Iran can also reduce the time span. Computer modeling and metal extraction were observed there in June and July,” says Taleblu, who researches for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. According to his analysis, Iranian nuclear researchers are trying to prepare for a production contract. “As a researcher, how do you keep your knowledge up to date? By constantly experimenting. So we see in Iran, and the secret services also report this, that the nuclear experts there are doing things that are relevant to weapons.”
Skills show from Tehran
It is not just Iran’s nuclear capabilities that are a factor for Israeli security. The analysis of this attack must also be taken into account when deciding how to respond to the Iranian missiles at the beginning of October. The 200 ballistic missiles in response to the violent death of Hassan Nasrallah can also be read as a show of capabilities from Tehran.
“These ballistic missile attacks were, in my opinion, more effective than was publicly acknowledged,” says ECFR’s Barnes-Dacey. “There have been several direct hits on Israeli missile bases, and we know that Hezbollah has not yet used the full power of its missiles. In recent days, missiles have also been targeted at central Israel, something the militia had not done before.”
“Go to the jugular”
So while Israel has been able to demonstrate Mossad’s considerable capabilities in recent weeks, Iran has at least shown that it has enough precision systems in its weapons depots to penetrate Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense shield. What does the Israeli government ultimately do and decide with all of these findings and factors? “We don’t know,” says Barnes-Dacey.
So in Israeli security circles you can see not only the rare opportunity to strike Iran right now, but also the necessity of doing so – before the atomic bomb actually becomes a reality. “Creating a new regional order now would mean hitting Iran on the nuclear front and also in other strategic ways.” In other words: “Going for his jugular.”
The expert warns against underestimating Iran’s capabilities. “I think the Israelis don’t have a completely free hand. They’re probably under pressure from the US to contain the reaction and not fuel the cycle any further. Because whatever they do now, the Iranians will feel compelled to hit even harder.”