Belgium, world number one, the English almost at home, the Turks and their defensive wall, the French players and their unrivaled record, the Spanish fish … which team is most likely to win Euro 2021, which begins Friday June 11 in Rome? The Decoders evaluated each of the twenty-four teams claiming the title, giving them a score from 0 to 10 based on eight criteria:
- the number of points in the FIFA ranking;
- the number of goals scored during the elimination stages;
- the average of goals conceded;
- the number of Euro matches that will be played in their country;
- the number of players playing in the four most prestigious championships (Germany, England, Italy, Spain);
- the sum of the major international titles won by the players of each team;
- the accumulation of the selections of each player for the national team;
- the luck factor: injured, sick from Covid …
The strengths and weaknesses of each team
Which favorite according to which criteria?
FIFA status: Belgium in the lead
In the ranking of the International Federation of Association Football (FIFA), Belgium is first among European teams with 1,783.38 points, ahead of France (1,757.3) and England, 4e (1,686.78). North Macedonia (62e, 1374.73 points) brings up the rear. Note that since 2018, FIFA has adopted a new method of calculation inspired by the Elo system, which came from chess. This no longer measures the points scored on average over the last few years but the performances and poor performances according to the results against the other teams, according to the respective rankings of each one.
Offensive realism: England straight to the point
England have the best offensive statistics in the qualifiers, with 4.6 goals scored per game (b / m), ahead of Belgium, Germany and Italy. Despite his dream attack on paper, reinforced in the meantime by the return of Karim Benzema, France is only at 10e row (2.5 b / m). Hungary (1 b / m on average) is the worst performing team.
Defensive efficiency: the Polish and Turkish walls
Poland and Turkey only conceded an average of 0.3 goals per game in the qualifiers, making them the best defenses, just ahead of Italy (0.4 b / m). France is located at 7e rank among the 24 qualified teams (0.7 b / m). Scotland are red lanterns, with 1.9 goals conceded per game on average.
Home advantage: one Euro in eleven countries (which favors England)
Originality of this event edition, the Euro is not played in just one country, but in 11 European cities: Rome, London, Amsterdam, Baku, Bucharest, Budapest, Copenhagen, Glasgow, Munich, Saint Petersburg and Seville.
As the schedule has been designed, England are the most favored team, as they will play all three of their group matches at home in their historic Wembley stadium, and even six matches in all, if they finish first in their group. and climbs to the final: semi-finals and final will be played in London.
Italy, Spain and Germany will be able to play up to four matches on their land. France, Finland, Belgium, Croatia, the Czech Republic and Portugal, on the other hand, will have to play all of their away matches. The Blues challenge, during the group stages, two teams playing at home, Germany and Hungary.
The level of the workforce: England at the top of the top 4
The 26 players who make up each selection do not all have the same experience of the very high level. England is the only one to present a list entirely made up of players playing in the four biggest leagues in Europe (Premier League, Liga, Bundesliga, Calcio), while Germany and Spain have 25 each, more a twenty-sixth at Paris-Saint-Germain, but Ligue 1 is not yet considered a major championship.
In this ranking, France is 7e with 22 players in the European top 4, while Russia has only two who play in these four championships. Note: North Macedonia is the only one to align a player whose team has just been demoted to National.
Individual awards: “cocorico” for France
If we add up all the titles won by the players of each team, none of them has a squad as successful as France, which has 36 prestigious victories in all, including 15 world champion medals. and as many Champions League. The Blues are ahead of Germany (24 major international titles, including 6 world champion medals and 17 in the Champions League) and Spain (22, including 1 veteran of the 2010 World Cup, 2 of Euro 2012, 10 Champions League and 9 Europa League). Ten formations have a workforce with a virgin international ranking.
The collective experience: Belgians accustomed to rubbing shoulders with each other
The players of the Belgian team have the highest number of cumulative matches in selection: 1,280 for the entire workforce. A guarantee of experience and team cohesion, even if it can also be a sign of aging training. Portugal ranks second (1,028) just ahead of France (1,020). Scotland are good last, with only 443 selections on the clock for their entire squad. However, beware of a bias: only experiences in team A are counted. The England team has only 533, but in reality many players know each other very well having played with the English team under 20, world champion in 2017.
Karma: the Netherlands, Sweden and Spain play bad luck
What would a football competition be without its (bad) luck factor? Injuries, packages, cases of Covid-19 … The preparation of some teams has already been turned upside down. Austria, Denmark and Turkey do not currently deplore any unforeseen events. With a simple “crutch” for Karim Benzema, France is relatively spared. It is different for the Netherlands, which has already registered three packages, including one due to Covid-19. Sweden, already deprived of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, is facing two cases of Covid-19 in its workforce. Spain, whose captain Sergio Busquets tested positive, had to play his last friendly, calling his Under-19 team to the rescue.