Russia has increased pressure on Ukraine with rocket fire on Kyiv. According to Russian information, tanks and other military equipment supplied by Eastern European countries were destroyed. In addition, a Ukrainian center for training artillerymen in Western weapons technology was met near Sumy on Saturday. Benno Zogg from the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich on the strategic importance of such attacks.
SRF News: Early on Sunday morning, the Russian army launched its first major attack on Kyiv in weeks. What does Russia intend to do with this?
Benno Zogg: The rocket attack probably had two goals. On the one hand, a symbolic one, to remind Ukraine that, despite a partial withdrawal of Russian troops and the failure of the first phase of the war, the Russian army still has the ability to hit any place in Ukraine at any time. This is intended to intimidate Ukraine.
Stopping western military supplies is key to weakening Ukrainian combat capability at the front.
Second, the missiles appear to have been aimed at supply lines important to Ukraine. The Kremlin has always said it considers supply lines of Western military material to be legitimate targets. It was left open whether even supply convoys outside of the Ukraine could be the target.
Weapons supplied by the West were deliberately destroyed in the attacks. Could this tactic work for Russia?
Stopping western military supplies is key to weakening Ukrainian combat capability at the front. Western support is keeping the resistance alive as Ukraine’s defense industry is largely destroyed and its arsenal exhausted.
Analysts were surprised that the supply lines within Ukraine were not more in the focus of Russian long-range weapons. This reluctance may be due to a lack of precision weapons in the Russian arsenal and a poor situational awareness. Ukraine has certainly diversified its supply routes and may also be transporting material and troops on a smaller scale so as not to be an easy target.
Legend:
Heavy explosions occur in Kyiv early Sunday morning. Mayor Vitali Klitschko wrote on Telegram that they happened in the districts of Darnytskyi and Dniprovskyi. (June 5, 2022)
Reuters
In recent weeks, the Russian army has focused on southern and eastern Ukraine. Does the attack on Kyiv represent a change of strategy?
The military objectives of the Russian troops remain in southern and eastern Ukraine. This was out of necessity, since the offensive failed in its first phase and the advance on Kyiv was aborted. Pinching off the supply lines to this front is intended to directly aid the Russian advance.
Air strikes across Ukraine are not new. Accordingly, this is not a Russian change of strategy.
We remember that Russian troops themselves felt the importance of supply lines when they were bogged down in attacks to the north and north-east. However, airstrikes throughout Ukraine are nothing new. Accordingly, this is not a Russian change of strategy, at best a slight shift in tactics.
A veritable urban war is raging in eastern Ukraine. What could turn the tide?
In eastern Ukraine, there is a fight for almost every meter. Both sides rely on heavy firepower. Russia in particular is willing to reduce entire cities to rubble and ash. House-to-house combat is considered a particularly costly form of combat that offers advantages to the defender. Therefore, from the Russian point of view, this is avoided as much as possible. A decisive turnaround is difficult to imagine in eastern Ukraine. Rather, the logic of attrition applies, which can be long and painful.
The written interview was conducted by Laura Sibold.