Four days pass between a surprising statement by French President Macron and a far-reaching decision by Chancellor Scholz: Ukraine should also be allowed to fire on Russia with Western weapons. What this means in detail is as unclear as the decision-making process.
Emmanuel Macron was prepared for this step: At the side of his host, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the French president held up a printed map of Ukraine during the joint press conference on Tuesday evening at Meseberg Castle. The graphic from the daily newspaper “Le Figaro” showed how Russia is attacking the nearby Ukrainian metropolis of Kharkiv from its own territory. “We think that we should allow them to neutralize the military sites from which the missiles are being fired and, in fact, the military sites from which Ukraine is being attacked,” said Macron. At that time, the “we” still referred to the French government. Since this Friday, it has been clear: the German head of government also sees it that way.
Ukraine has been attacked in recent weeks “particularly in the Kharkiv area from positions in the immediately adjacent Russian border region,” said government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit three days after the German-French ministerial meeting at Meseberg Castle. “We are jointly convinced that Ukraine has the right, guaranteed under international law, to defend itself against these attacks,” said Hebestreit. For this purpose, Kiev could also use the weapons systems and ammunition provided by other countries – “including those supplied by us.” The names of the Panzerhaubitze 2000 supplied by Germany and the MARS II rocket launcher are particularly circulating in this context.
Was Scholz surprised or in the know?
At Macron’s side, Scholz reacted sheepishly: “Under international law, Ukraine has every opportunity to do what it does,” the German head of government commented on Macron’s statements. Agreements between Kiev and the western capitals in this regard have worked well so far. Whether the Chancellor had fully, partially or not at all followed the President’s line? It is unclear. In the aftermath, there was speculation: had Macron duped Scholz? That would not have fit in with the friendship between Berlin and Paris that had been extensively celebrated for three days beforehand. But if Scholz had been forewarned, why so many ambiguities – which continued the following day in the statements made by government spokesman Hebestreit?
The German government points out that the two had already spoken before Macron and Scholz’s press conference in Meseberg. However, a final agreement does not seem to have been reached on Tuesday. Representatives of the USA, France, Great Britain and Germany met at the level of national security advisors on Wednesday and Thursday to discuss the use of Western weapons by Ukraine against military targets in Russia.
On Thursday evening, the US government finally confirmed media reports in its country that Washington had allowed Kiev to use American weapons on a limited scale against targets on Russian territory. However, this only applies to counterattacks in defense of the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, a US government representative said. It is unclear whether the European partners will follow this restriction. At the federal press conference, journalists pointed out the imprecise wording of the federal government: “In the Kharkiv area in particular,” Russia is attacking from its own border area, against which Ukraine is allowed to defend itself. Hebestreit’s deputy Wolfgang Büchner remained vague.
What can be affected by Russia?
Is Kiev now allowed to use Western weapons against military targets on Russian soil that are used for attacks on Ukrainian regions other than Kharkiv? Ukraine has long been attacking targets in Russia with its own drones and sabotage units, some of them thousands of kilometers away from Ukraine. The capital Moscow has already been targeted, as have the air bases of the bomber squadrons that fire cruise missiles. The latter, at least, are clearly military targets.
For Ukraine’s western supporters, the main aim of the clearance appears to be to increase Russia’s risk of operations directly along the Ukrainian border. Russian military equipment and troop concentrations are said to be just as at risk near Ukraine as they are from Russian attacks from the occupied regions of Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea. Cruise missiles and grenades made by the West have also repeatedly landed there, particularly in Crimea.
With their offensive in the Kharkiv area, the Russians recently managed to put Ukraine under great pressure. The front line has now been extended by hundreds of kilometers. As a result, Kiev must deploy soldiers and weapons over a larger area, although both are in short supply. In view of this precarious situation, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg had demanded, alongside Scholz, before Macron’s appearance, that the West must allow Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory, including with Western weapons.
New escalation level in the middle of the election campaign
This is a big step for Scholz in particular. He has a reputation as a procrastinator among Ukraine’s major western allies. The Federal Republic has provided more military aid than any other European country and has contributed a great deal to the air defense of large cities and civilian infrastructure. On the other hand, the Chancellor is wary of any kind of solo action or rushing ahead and does not want to do anything that the USA is not at least prepared to do. Scholz has also categorically ruled out direct involvement of German soldiers in the fighting.
France’s president, on the other hand, prefers to keep Russian head of state Vladimir Putin in the dark about what might happen next. Macron did not even want to rule out the ground deployment of NATO soldiers in Ukraine in the winter, much to Scholz’s annoyance. Macron immediately reminded him that in the recent past, the delivery of weapons, then battle tanks and finally fighter planes to Ukraine had also been ruled out. The Chancellor had also always initially reacted negatively to this.
But they all came anyway, and the deployment of US-made F16 fighter jets is due to begin soon. Now Scholz again seems as if others had created facts that he could only nod along to. Is that really the case? Or is the election-campaigning chancellor deliberately promoting the public image of someone who never takes the lead in escalating the struggle with Russia, but always goes along with the alliance? At least Ukraine now has to pay less attention to German sensitivities in its defensive struggle. It could soon be firing at Russia from a gun barrel made in Germany, mounted on a Panzerhaubitze 2000 from the Bundeswehr’s stocks.